多元集对分析在贵州干旱预警中的应用
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摘要
干旱预警是一个非线性、复杂、开放的预警过程.以集对分析为基础,利用其可展性,引入同化度等概念建立了多元集对分析模糊评价模型,并采用层次分析法(AHP)确定各指标权重.应用模型对贵州省修文县、兴仁县、湄潭县2013年8月份上、中、下旬发生干旱情况进行评价分析与预警,并与常规集对分析评价和预警结果进行了比较.实例应用显示模型能够真实地反映修文县、兴仁县、湄潭县2013年8月份发生干旱情况,预警结果更符合客观实际.研究表明,基于层次分析法的多元集对分析模糊评价模型结构简单,计算简洁,运用其对贵州省干旱进行预警可行有效.
The drought early warning is a nonlinear,complicated and opened process.The multifactor degree set pair analysis fuzzy evaluation model is based on the routine set pair analysis and its developability,and assimilation degree is cited to establish it.The analytic hierarchy process is adopted to determine the index weight.Taken Xiuwen County,Xingren County and Meitan County of Guizhou Province in August 2013 as demonstration,the drought early warning is evaluated by it,and the result is compared with the result of the routine set pair analysis evaluation.It is showed that this model can reflect the occurrence of drought conditions in Xiuwen County,Xingren County and Meitan County in August 2013.It is showed that the multifactor degree set pair analysis fuzzy evaluation model based on analytic hierarchy process is simple structure,easy calculation,and it is feasible and reliable for the drought early warning of Guizhou Province.
The drought early warning is a nonlinear,complicated and opened process.The multifactor degree set pair analysis fuzzy evaluation model is based on the routine set pair analysis and its developability,and assimilation degree is cited to establish it.The analytic hierarchy process is adopted to determine the index weight.Taken Xiuwen County,Xingren County and Meitan County of Guizhou Province in August 2013 as demonstration,the drought early warning is evaluated by it,and the result is compared with the result of the routine set pair analysis evaluation.It is showed that this model can reflect the occurrence of drought conditions in Xiuwen County,Xingren County and Meitan County in August 2013.It is showed that the multifactor degree set pair analysis fuzzy evaluation model based on analytic hierarchy process is simple structure,easy calculation,and it is feasible and reliable for the drought early warning of Guizhou Province.
引文
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[6]张运鑫,徐红松,蔡晓磊,等.基于集对分析多元模糊法的湖泊水质评价[J].人民黄河,2012,34(3):52-56.
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[8]张瑶娜,顾小琳,杨小辉,等.贵州省抗旱战略研究[M].,贵州:贵州前程科技开发公司印制,2007.
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[10]郭金玉,张忠彬,孙庆云.层次分析法的研究与应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2008,18(5):148-153.
[11]赵宏杰,李海红,曾贵,等.集对分析多元模糊评价法在水资源可再生能力评价中应用[J].数学的实践与认识,2013,43(2):192-198.
[2]赵克勤.集对分析及其初步应用[M].杭州:浙江科学技术出版社,2000.
[3]赵克勤.集对分析及其初步应用[J].大自然探索,1994,13(47):67-72.
[4]乔鹏帅,齐青青,张泽中,等.集对分析多元模糊模型在灌区评价中的应用[J].人民黄河,2011,33(9):101—103.
[5]赵贵章,张泽中,齐青青.多元集对分析在湿地健康评价中的应用[J].南水北调与水利科技,2010,8(3):42—47.
[6]张运鑫,徐红松,蔡晓磊,等.基于集对分析多元模糊法的湖泊水质评价[J].人民黄河,2012,34(3):52-56.
[7]于宝珠.旱情分析评价模型及其预警机制的研究[D].哈尔滨:东北农业大学,2012.
[8]张瑶娜,顾小琳,杨小辉,等.贵州省抗旱战略研究[M].,贵州:贵州前程科技开发公司印制,2007.
[9]中华人民共和国水利部.SL424-2008,旱情等级标准[S].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2008.
[10]郭金玉,张忠彬,孙庆云.层次分析法的研究与应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2008,18(5):148-153.
[11]赵宏杰,李海红,曾贵,等.集对分析多元模糊评价法在水资源可再生能力评价中应用[J].数学的实践与认识,2013,43(2):192-198.
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