2030年上海地区相对海平面变化趋势的研究和预测
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摘要
从全球气候变化区域响应角度,依据1912—2000年吴淞验潮站年平均潮位资料,构建灰色线性回归组合模型,并将其与最小二乘法和小波变换相结合,分析以吴淞为代表的上海绝对海平面长期变化趋势和周期变化规律。由此预测2030年上海绝对海平面相对2011年的上升值为4 cm,结合已公布的构造沉降和城市地面沉降、流域水土保持和大型水利工程及人工挖沙导致的河口河槽冲刷、河口围海造地和深水航道及跨江跨海大桥导致水位抬升等叠加效应及其变化趋势,预测2030年上海市相对海平面上升10~16 cm,陆地海平面上升有7个风险分区。
In a view of regional response to global climate change,eustatic sea level variation and long-term trends of potential cycle in the Shanghai area are analyzed by using the grey model with linear regression analysis,which is combining the least square method and wavelet transform based on the yearly-averaged tidal data at the Wusong tide station in 1912—2000.The eustatic sea level rise in Shanghai area in 2030 is predicted as 4 cm compare with in 2011.Meanwhile,the relative sea level rise is predicted as 10-16 cm,which combined with eustatic sea level rise and published tectonic subsidence,urban ground subsidence,estuarine channel erosion resulted from the watershed soil and water conservation and large water conservancy engineering,and rising of water level due to the land reclamation and deep waterway regulation.Seven risks zoning of the sea level rise in land area of Shanghai is also estimated.
In a view of regional response to global climate change,eustatic sea level variation and long-term trends of potential cycle in the Shanghai area are analyzed by using the grey model with linear regression analysis,which is combining the least square method and wavelet transform based on the yearly-averaged tidal data at the Wusong tide station in 1912—2000.The eustatic sea level rise in Shanghai area in 2030 is predicted as 4 cm compare with in 2011.Meanwhile,the relative sea level rise is predicted as 10-16 cm,which combined with eustatic sea level rise and published tectonic subsidence,urban ground subsidence,estuarine channel erosion resulted from the watershed soil and water conservation and large water conservancy engineering,and rising of water level due to the land reclamation and deep waterway regulation.Seven risks zoning of the sea level rise in land area of Shanghai is also estimated.
引文
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[21]董晓军,黄碱.利用TOPEX/Pos-eidon卫星测高资料监测全球海平面变化[J].测绘学报,2000,29(3):266-272
[22]Cabanes C,Cazenave A,Provost C.Sea level rise during past 40 years determined from satellite and in situ observations[J].Science,2001,294(5543):840-842
[23]Ishii M,Kimoto M,Kachi M.Historical ocean subsurface temperature analysis with error estimates[J].Monthly Weather Review,2003(131):51-73
[24]任美锷.黄河、长江、珠江三角洲近30年海平面上升趋势及2030年海平面上升量预测[J].地理学报,1993,48(5):385-393
[2]秦曾灏,李永平.上海海平面变化规律及其长期预测方法的初探[J].海洋学报,1997,19(1):1-7
[3]IPCC.Climate change 2013:the physical science basis[R].2013[2014-11-20].http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wgl/#.UsH O_tW-Ag
[4]Syvitski J P M,Albert J K,Irina O,et al.Sinking deltas due to human activities[J].Nature Geoscience,2009(2):681-686
[5]施雅风,朱季文,谢志仁,等.长江三角洲及吡连地区海平面上升影响预测与防治对策[J].中国科学:D辑,2000,30(3):225-232
[6]IPCC.Climate change 1990:the IPCC scientific assessment[M].Cambridge UK:Cambridge University Press,1990
[7]陈西庆.近70年长江口海面变化研究及其意义[J].地理学报,1990,45(4):387-398
[8]上海市水利局.海平面上升对上海影响及对策研究系列报告[R].上海,1996
[9]华东师范大学,上海市水务规划设计研究院.长江口海平面上升对城市安全影响及应对关键技术研究报告[R].上海,2013
[10]毛兴华,顾圣华,莫丹锋,等.长江口平均潮位与半潮面的关系[J].华东师范大学学报:自然科学版,2013(2):50-55
[11]张晓鹤,李九发,朱文武,等.近期长江河口冲淤演变过程研究[J].海洋学报,2015,37(3):134-143
[12]He Y F,Cheng H Q,Chen J Y.Morphological evolution of mouth bars on the Yangtze estuarine waterways in the last 100 years[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2013,23(2):219-230
[13]程和琴,陈吉余,黄志良,等.长江河口北支河床演变过程中的人为驱动效应[M]//陈吉余.21世纪的长江河口.北京:海洋出版社,2009:128-148
[14]上海海事局海测大队.长江口深度基准面的变化与应用研究报告[R].上海,2013
[15]杜景龙,杨世伦.长江口北槽深水航道工程对周边滩涂冲淤影响研究[J].地理科学,2007,27(3):390-394
[16]刘新成,沈焕庭,杨清书.长江河口段潮差变化研究[J].华东师范大学学报:自然科学版,1999(2):89-94
[17]壬冬梅,程和琴,张先林,等.新世纪上海地区相对海平面变化影响因素及预测方法[J].上海国土资源,2011,32(3):35-40
[18]侯成程,朱建荣.长江河口潮流界与径流量定量关系研究[J].华东师范大学学报:自然科学版,2013(5):18-26
[19]Gornitz V.Global coastal hazards from futuer sea level rise[J].Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol,1991,89:379-398
[20]John A C,Neil J W,Leonard F K,et al.Revisiting the Earth's sea-level and energy budget from 1961 to 2008[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2011,38:L18601
[21]董晓军,黄碱.利用TOPEX/Pos-eidon卫星测高资料监测全球海平面变化[J].测绘学报,2000,29(3):266-272
[22]Cabanes C,Cazenave A,Provost C.Sea level rise during past 40 years determined from satellite and in situ observations[J].Science,2001,294(5543):840-842
[23]Ishii M,Kimoto M,Kachi M.Historical ocean subsurface temperature analysis with error estimates[J].Monthly Weather Review,2003(131):51-73
[24]任美锷.黄河、长江、珠江三角洲近30年海平面上升趋势及2030年海平面上升量预测[J].地理学报,1993,48(5):385-393
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