低径流量条件下海平面上升对长江口淡水资源的影响
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摘要
基于长江口水动力及盐水入侵三维数值模式ECOM-si,统筹考虑气候变化导致流域极端低径流量的前提下,研究在未来(2030、2050和2100年)海平面上升过程中,长江口淡水资源分布及总量变化过程,探讨河口三大重要水库取水活动对海平面上升的响应,对防范未来可能出现的盐水入侵危害具有重要作用,也为长江口水源地建设与水库取水调度提供理论依据和技术支持。1999年冬季、2006年秋季和201 1年春季期间长江径流量均为自1980年以来的同期最低,且长江口均发生了极为严重、影响巨大的盐水入侵,考虑到径流量的季节变化特点,选取上述3个时期的径流量作为上游边界条件。结果表明,长江口淡水资源在1999年冬季径流量条件下随海平面上升而减少,至2100年大、小潮期间淡水总量相比于2012年分别减少42%和41%,水库最长不宜取水天数增加70%以上;在2006年秋季径流量条件下,淡水资源随海平面上升而减少,但在海平面上升至2050年情况下,河道水位抬升使进入北支的径流量增加,削弱盐水倒灌,水库最长不宜取水天数减少40%~50%;在201 1年春季径流量条件下,淡水资源在海平面上升至2100年后大、小潮期间分别减少43%和20%,水库最长不宜取水天数增加1~3 d。
A 3-D numerical model ECOM-si was used to assess the distribution and variation process of freshwater volume as well as the responses of major reservoirs to the sea-level rise in 2030,2050 and 2100 in condition of low river discharge.The study concentrates on water intake in reservoirs and against the risk by saltwater intrusion.Considering seasonal variation of river discharge,we chose three cases as the runoff boundary condition,including winter in 1999,autumn in 2006 and spring in 2011,which were all the lowest river discharge in the past 30 years over the same seasons,and saltwater intrusion made great harm in those periods.The results showed that the freshwater resources decrease when sea level rises in condition of river discharge in 1999 winter,and the volume drop by 42% and 41% in spring and neap tides relatively in 2100 sea-level rise scenario,together with the 70% increase in duration periods that are unsuitable for water intake.In condition of spring in 2011,the freshwater volume decreases by 43% and 20% in spring and neap tides relatively under 2100 sea-level rise,and the duration periods that are unsuitable for water intake increase by 1—3 days.In condition of autumn in 2006,freshwater resources decrease except in 2050 sea-level rise scenario,in which the duration periods that are unsuitable for water intake decrease by 40%—50% because of the weakened saltwater intrusion caused by the diluted saltwater from the North Branch.
A 3-D numerical model ECOM-si was used to assess the distribution and variation process of freshwater volume as well as the responses of major reservoirs to the sea-level rise in 2030,2050 and 2100 in condition of low river discharge.The study concentrates on water intake in reservoirs and against the risk by saltwater intrusion.Considering seasonal variation of river discharge,we chose three cases as the runoff boundary condition,including winter in 1999,autumn in 2006 and spring in 2011,which were all the lowest river discharge in the past 30 years over the same seasons,and saltwater intrusion made great harm in those periods.The results showed that the freshwater resources decrease when sea level rises in condition of river discharge in 1999 winter,and the volume drop by 42% and 41% in spring and neap tides relatively in 2100 sea-level rise scenario,together with the 70% increase in duration periods that are unsuitable for water intake.In condition of spring in 2011,the freshwater volume decreases by 43% and 20% in spring and neap tides relatively under 2100 sea-level rise,and the duration periods that are unsuitable for water intake increase by 1—3 days.In condition of autumn in 2006,freshwater resources decrease except in 2050 sea-level rise scenario,in which the duration periods that are unsuitable for water intake decrease by 40%—50% because of the weakened saltwater intrusion caused by the diluted saltwater from the North Branch.
引文
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[6]Shaha D C,Cho Y K,Kim T W.Effects of river discharge and tide driven sea level variation on saltwater intrusion in Sumjin River estuary:an application of finite-volume coastal ocean model[J].Journal of Coastal Research,2012,29(2):460-470.
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[14]顾圣华.2011年春末夏初枯水期间长江河口盐水入侵[J].华东师范大学学报:自然科学版,2014(4):154-162
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[18]Chen C S,Zhu J R,Ralph E,et al.Prognostic modeling studies of the keweenaw current in Lake superior.Part I formation and evolution[J].Journal of Physical Oceanography,2001,31:379-395
[19]Casulli V.Semi-implicit finite difference methods for three-dimensional hallow water flow[J].International Journal For Numerical Methods In Fluids,1992:629-648
[20]Mellor G L,Yamada T.Development of a turbulence closure model for geophysical fluid problem[J].Reviews of Geophysics and Space Physics,1982,20:851-875
[21]Wu H,Zhu J R.Advection scheme with 3rd high-order spatial interpolation at the middle temporal level and its application to saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang Estuary[J].Ocean Modelling,2010,33(1):33-51
[22]Li L,Zhu J R,Wu H,et al.A numerical study on the water diversion ratio of the Changjiang Estuary during the dry season[J].Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,2010,28(3):700-712
[23]朱建荣,吴辉,顾玉亮.长江河口北支倒灌盐通量数值分析[J].海洋学研究,2011,29(3):1-7
[24]Li L,Zhu J R,Wu H.Impacts of wind stress on saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze Estuary[J].Sci China Earth Sci,2012,55(7):1178-1192
[25]Qiu C,Zhu J R.Influence of seasonal runoff regulation by the Three Gorges Reservoir on saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang River Estuary[J].Continental Shelf Research,2013,71:16-26
[26]吴辉,朱建荣.长江河口北支倒灌盐水输送机制分析[J].海洋学报,2007,29(1):17-25
[27]Wu H,Zhu J R,Choi B H.Links between saltwater intrusion and subtidal circulation in the Changjiang Estuary:a model-guided study[J].Continental Shelf Research,2010,20:1891-1905
[28]Wang J,Gao W,Xu S Y,et al.Evaluation of the combined risk of sea level rise,land subsidence,and storm surges on the coastal area of Shanghai,China[J].Climatic Change,2012,115:537-558
[29]李永平,秦曾灏,端义宏.上海地区海平面上升趋势的预测和研究[J].地理学报,1 998,53(5):393-403
[30]叶叔华.运动的地球:现代地壳运动和地球动力学研究及应用[M].湖南:科学技术出版社,1996
[31]刘毅,龚士良.上海市地面沉降泊松旋回长期预测[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,1998,9(2):75-80
[32]Qiu C,Zhu J R,Gu Y L.Impact of seasonal tide variation on saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang River estuary[J].Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,2012,30(2):342-351
[2]Grabemann H J,Grabemann I,Herbers D,et al.Effects of a specific climate scenario on the hydrography and transport of conservative substances in the Weser Estuary,Germany:a case study[J],Climate Research,2001,18(1-2):77-87
[3]Khang N D,Kotera A,Sakamoto T,et al.Sensitivity of salinity intrusion to sea level rise and river flow change in Vietnamese Mekong Delta impacts on availability of irrigation water for rice cropping[J].Journal of Agricultural Meteorology,2008,64(3):167-176
[4]Hansen D V,Rattray M.Gravitational circulation in straits and estuaries[J].Journal of Marine Research,1965,23(2):104-122
[5]MacCready P,Geyer W R.Advances in estuarine physics[J].Annual Review of Marine Science,2010,2:35-58
[6]Shaha D C,Cho Y K,Kim T W.Effects of river discharge and tide driven sea level variation on saltwater intrusion in Sumjin River estuary:an application of finite-volume coastal ocean model[J].Journal of Coastal Research,2012,29(2):460-470.
[7]Hong B,Shen J.Responses of estuarine salinity and transport processes to potential future sea-level rise in the Chesapeake Bay[J].Estuarine,Coastal and Shelf Science,2012,104-105:33-45
[8]罗锋,李瑞杰,廖光洪,等.水文气象条件变化对长江口盐水入侵影响研究[J].海洋学研究,2011,29(3):8-17
[9]孔兰,陈晓宏,杜建,等.基于数学模型的海平面上升对咸潮上溯的影响[J].自然资源学报,2010,25(7):1097-1104
[10]沈焕庭,茅志昌,朱建荣.长江河口盐水入侵[M].北京:海洋出版社,2003
[11]陈沈良,张二凤,谷国传,等.特枯水文年长江口南槽盐水入侵分析[J].海洋通报,2009,28(3):29-36
[12]朱建荣,吴辉,顾玉亮.长江河口北支倒灌盐通量数值分析[J].海洋学研究,2011,29(3):1-7
[13]宋志尧,茅丽华.长江口盐水入侵研究[J].水资源保护,2002(3):27-30
[14]顾圣华.2011年春末夏初枯水期间长江河口盐水入侵[J].华东师范大学学报:自然科学版,2014(4):154-162
[15]朱建荣,吴辉,李路,等.极端干旱水文年(2006)中长江河口的盐水入侵[J].华东师范大学学报:自然科学版,2010(4):1-6
[16]Blumberg A F.Aprimer for ECOM-si[J].Technical Report of HydroQual,Mahwah,New Jersey,1994,66
[17]Arakawa A,Lamb V R.Computational design of the basic dynamical process of the UCLA general circulation model[C].Methods in Computational Physics,Academic Press,1977,17:173-265
[18]Chen C S,Zhu J R,Ralph E,et al.Prognostic modeling studies of the keweenaw current in Lake superior.Part I formation and evolution[J].Journal of Physical Oceanography,2001,31:379-395
[19]Casulli V.Semi-implicit finite difference methods for three-dimensional hallow water flow[J].International Journal For Numerical Methods In Fluids,1992:629-648
[20]Mellor G L,Yamada T.Development of a turbulence closure model for geophysical fluid problem[J].Reviews of Geophysics and Space Physics,1982,20:851-875
[21]Wu H,Zhu J R.Advection scheme with 3rd high-order spatial interpolation at the middle temporal level and its application to saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang Estuary[J].Ocean Modelling,2010,33(1):33-51
[22]Li L,Zhu J R,Wu H,et al.A numerical study on the water diversion ratio of the Changjiang Estuary during the dry season[J].Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,2010,28(3):700-712
[23]朱建荣,吴辉,顾玉亮.长江河口北支倒灌盐通量数值分析[J].海洋学研究,2011,29(3):1-7
[24]Li L,Zhu J R,Wu H.Impacts of wind stress on saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze Estuary[J].Sci China Earth Sci,2012,55(7):1178-1192
[25]Qiu C,Zhu J R.Influence of seasonal runoff regulation by the Three Gorges Reservoir on saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang River Estuary[J].Continental Shelf Research,2013,71:16-26
[26]吴辉,朱建荣.长江河口北支倒灌盐水输送机制分析[J].海洋学报,2007,29(1):17-25
[27]Wu H,Zhu J R,Choi B H.Links between saltwater intrusion and subtidal circulation in the Changjiang Estuary:a model-guided study[J].Continental Shelf Research,2010,20:1891-1905
[28]Wang J,Gao W,Xu S Y,et al.Evaluation of the combined risk of sea level rise,land subsidence,and storm surges on the coastal area of Shanghai,China[J].Climatic Change,2012,115:537-558
[29]李永平,秦曾灏,端义宏.上海地区海平面上升趋势的预测和研究[J].地理学报,1 998,53(5):393-403
[30]叶叔华.运动的地球:现代地壳运动和地球动力学研究及应用[M].湖南:科学技术出版社,1996
[31]刘毅,龚士良.上海市地面沉降泊松旋回长期预测[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,1998,9(2):75-80
[32]Qiu C,Zhu J R,Gu Y L.Impact of seasonal tide variation on saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang River estuary[J].Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,2012,30(2):342-351
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