基于可公度方法的云南地区地震数据分析与预测
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摘要
基于可公度的方法,对云南地区(22°~29°N,98°~104°E)从1800到2007年间发生的震级在6.7级以上的地震数据进行了分析与预测。在证实该数据具有较强的可公度性的基础上,预测云南地区近期的地震发生时间,获得了较好的结果。因此,将该方法用于地震,水文等数据的处理,对防灾减灾是非常有意义的。
Base on the method of commensurability, the data of earthquake that happened during 1800 and 2007 in Yunnan region (22 degrees and 29 degrees north, 98 degrees and 104 degrees east) and the magnitude over 6. 7 are analyzed and forecasted in this paper. After showing that the data has strong commensurability, we obtain a good result when forecasting the time of recent earthquake in Yunnan region. As a result, it makes sense that this method can be applied to processing the data of earthquake and hydrologic for disaster prevention and reduction.
Base on the method of commensurability, the data of earthquake that happened during 1800 and 2007 in Yunnan region (22 degrees and 29 degrees north, 98 degrees and 104 degrees east) and the magnitude over 6. 7 are analyzed and forecasted in this paper. After showing that the data has strong commensurability, we obtain a good result when forecasting the time of recent earthquake in Yunnan region. As a result, it makes sense that this method can be applied to processing the data of earthquake and hydrologic for disaster prevention and reduction.
引文
龙小霞.2006. 基于可公度方法的川滇地区地震趋势研究[J].灾害学,21(3) :81-84
门可佩,赵兵.1998. 干支60周期及可公度性与江苏-南黄海地区地震预测[J].地震地磁观测与研究,19(6) :39-44
翁文波.1984. 预测论基础[M].北京:石油工业出版社
夏军.1991. 水文灾变事件的一种可公度信息预测方法初探[J].武汉水利电力学院学报,24(3) :288-295
门可佩,赵兵.1998. 干支60周期及可公度性与江苏-南黄海地区地震预测[J].地震地磁观测与研究,19(6) :39-44
翁文波.1984. 预测论基础[M].北京:石油工业出版社
夏军.1991. 水文灾变事件的一种可公度信息预测方法初探[J].武汉水利电力学院学报,24(3) :288-295
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