关于云南丽江7级地震的中短期预报
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摘要
总结了对 1 996年 2月 3日云南丽江 7级地震的中短期监视及跟踪预报过程 .根据川滇地区地震活动特征和可公度性计算结果 ,在该次地震前对地震大形势进行了预测 .1 995年 1 0月以后 ,滇西北地区出现了大面积、大幅度、多手段的同步异常 ,其中以水氡、水位和CO2 异常为主 ,沿中甸─南涧地震区分布较为集中 .根据上述异常特征及异常分布情况 ,作者在该次地震前 2个月向大理州政府提出了书面预报意见 ,认为 1 996年 2月底以前在中甸─丽江─剑川─华坪一带有可能发生 5~ 6级地震 .
The medium short term prediction and monitor process of the Lijiang M S7 earthquake on Feb.3, 1996 of Yunnan province is introduced. Seismicity trend before the earthquake was forecasted according to seismicity feature and commensurable characteristics of strong earthquake activities of Sichuan and Yunnan areas.Since Oct., 1995, a lot of kinds of the anomalies with large amplitude, such as radon and CO 2 contents in groundwater and groundwater level etc.synchronized in a wide range of western Yunnan, especially along Zhongdian—Nanjian seismic area. The characteristics of these short term anomalies are introduced and analysed. According to the anomalous characteristics and distribution of the anomalies, as well as seismicity indices, the author thought that a M 5~6 earthquake may occur in Zhongdian—Lijiang—Jianchuan—Huaping zone the end of Feb.,1996 before and had presented a written prediction to the government of Dali prefecture.
The medium short term prediction and monitor process of the Lijiang M S7 earthquake on Feb.3, 1996 of Yunnan province is introduced. Seismicity trend before the earthquake was forecasted according to seismicity feature and commensurable characteristics of strong earthquake activities of Sichuan and Yunnan areas.Since Oct., 1995, a lot of kinds of the anomalies with large amplitude, such as radon and CO 2 contents in groundwater and groundwater level etc.synchronized in a wide range of western Yunnan, especially along Zhongdian—Nanjian seismic area. The characteristics of these short term anomalies are introduced and analysed. According to the anomalous characteristics and distribution of the anomalies, as well as seismicity indices, the author thought that a M 5~6 earthquake may occur in Zhongdian—Lijiang—Jianchuan—Huaping zone the end of Feb.,1996 before and had presented a written prediction to the government of Dali prefecture.
引文
① 董国胜 ,等 .震情研究报告 [R].1994.
②董国胜 ,等 .震情研究报告 [R].1995 .
[1] 翁文波 .可公度性 [J].地球物理学报 ,1981,2 4(12 ) :15 1~ 15 4.
[2 ] 朱令人 ,陈松涛 .南疆强震可公度特征的初步探索 [J].西北地震学报 ,1983,5 (1) :43~ 5 1.
[3] 董国胜 .中国 8级地震的可公度值探讨 [J].地震研究 ,1987,10 (4) :44 1~ 44 5 .
[4 ] 董国胜 .地震可公度性及其在禄劝地震预报中的应用 [J].地震研究 ,1986 ,9(5 ) :5 47~ 5 5 3.
[5 ] 董国胜 .滇西 7个短临预报指标 [A].见 :董国胜 ,等 .多震区地震研究 .昆明 :云南科技出版社 ,1994.10 9~ 116 .
②董国胜 ,等 .震情研究报告 [R].1995 .
[1] 翁文波 .可公度性 [J].地球物理学报 ,1981,2 4(12 ) :15 1~ 15 4.
[2 ] 朱令人 ,陈松涛 .南疆强震可公度特征的初步探索 [J].西北地震学报 ,1983,5 (1) :43~ 5 1.
[3] 董国胜 .中国 8级地震的可公度值探讨 [J].地震研究 ,1987,10 (4) :44 1~ 44 5 .
[4 ] 董国胜 .地震可公度性及其在禄劝地震预报中的应用 [J].地震研究 ,1986 ,9(5 ) :5 47~ 5 5 3.
[5 ] 董国胜 .滇西 7个短临预报指标 [A].见 :董国胜 ,等 .多震区地震研究 .昆明 :云南科技出版社 ,1994.10 9~ 116 .
目录