重庆市人口 耕地 粮食可持续发展问题研究
|
摘要
通过对1997~2007年重庆市人口数量、耕地面积和粮食产量的动态分析,以及采用spss预测方法对未来的2010年、2020年重庆市人口数量、耕地面积和粮食产量的发展趋势进行预测,结果显示,过去的10年,重庆市的人口持续增长、耕地面积逐年减少,人均粮食产量有所降低。未来的10年,该市的耕地面积还将进一步减少,人口会有所增加,人均粮食产量将有所减少。因此,应提高人口素质,遏止耕地减少势头,提高耕地质量,增加粮食单产。
Based on the analysis of the changes of the population,cropland and grain production during 1997 to 2007 in Chongqing,the paper used the spss methord to forecast the trend of the population,cropland and grain production in 2010 and in 2020.The results show that in the past 10 years the population continued to growing,while the cropland redused years by years,and the per capita grain production has being decreased.In the next 10 years the cropland will go further reduce,and the population increased.Then the per capita grain production would be reduced.So the quality of the population should be improved,and the reduce trend of the cropland must be stopped in order to improve the quality of cropland and to increase the food production.
Based on the analysis of the changes of the population,cropland and grain production during 1997 to 2007 in Chongqing,the paper used the spss methord to forecast the trend of the population,cropland and grain production in 2010 and in 2020.The results show that in the past 10 years the population continued to growing,while the cropland redused years by years,and the per capita grain production has being decreased.In the next 10 years the cropland will go further reduce,and the population increased.Then the per capita grain production would be reduced.So the quality of the population should be improved,and the reduce trend of the cropland must be stopped in order to improve the quality of cropland and to increase the food production.
引文
[1]任平,周介铭,王广杰,等.四川省人口、耕地和粮食可持续发展研究[J].国土与自然资源研究,2005(4):30-31.
[2]李志辉,罗平.SPSS for Windows统计分析教程(第2版)[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2005.
[3]何满喜,刘向东,郑治华.兴安盟人口耕地粮食系统技术经济分析[J].农业系统科学与综合研究,2002(1):36-38.
[4]曹俊杰,邵先锋.制约山东农业可持续发展的因素及对策[J].淄博学院学报(社会科学版),2001(1):62-64.
[5]侯西勇,孙希华.耕地粮食生产潜力及人口承载力研究——以长清县为例[J].地球信息科学,2002(4):24-29.
[6]王振健,李如雪,邓良基,等.四川省耕地资源可持续利用与粮食安全对策[J].国土与自然资源研究,2003(4):29-30.
[7]周学金,郑伟.扬州市人口耕地粮食现状分析及发展对策[J].农业经济,1995(10):40-42.
[2]李志辉,罗平.SPSS for Windows统计分析教程(第2版)[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2005.
[3]何满喜,刘向东,郑治华.兴安盟人口耕地粮食系统技术经济分析[J].农业系统科学与综合研究,2002(1):36-38.
[4]曹俊杰,邵先锋.制约山东农业可持续发展的因素及对策[J].淄博学院学报(社会科学版),2001(1):62-64.
[5]侯西勇,孙希华.耕地粮食生产潜力及人口承载力研究——以长清县为例[J].地球信息科学,2002(4):24-29.
[6]王振健,李如雪,邓良基,等.四川省耕地资源可持续利用与粮食安全对策[J].国土与自然资源研究,2003(4):29-30.
[7]周学金,郑伟.扬州市人口耕地粮食现状分析及发展对策[J].农业经济,1995(10):40-42.
目录