上海地区汛期暴雨的延伸期预测方法及应用
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摘要
本文利用700 hPa低频流场的演变分析上海暴雨过程的主要低频静态模型及大暴雨过程的主要低频动态模型。根据2005—2015年近10年的11 2个暴雨日样本建立低频系统静态预测模型,即一种是北方低频反气旋南方低频气旋型,另一种是北方低频气旋南方低频反气旋型。进一步研究发现,24 h雨量≥100 mm的大暴雨主要表现为低频气旋型,约占大暴雨总日数的60%。这种低频模态的大暴雨在发生前30 d至发生时的低频系统移动路径具有较好的一致性,即源自高纬度的低频反气旋在大暴雨发生前30 d左右逐渐向东南方向移动,在暴雨发生前20 d左右热带洋面进入低频气旋活跃期,随后低频气旋向西北方向移动,当两者交汇于上海附近地区时,产生大暴雨过程。利用这种移动路径的一致性建立大暴雨的动态预测模型。将静态及动态模型相结合用于业务预报,利用该方法较为准确地预报出近5年汛期的最强降水,时效均在12 d以上。
Based on the wind field and vapor field at 700 hPa of NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis dataset,and the precipitation data of 11 stations in Shanghai,this paper applies the method of the extended period rainstorm forecast in Shanghai.Based on the data of 112 rainstorm days in the past 10 years,the static prediction model of low frequency system is established.One is the type of northern low-frequency anticyclone and the south low-frequency cyclone,while the other is the type of northern low-frequency cyclone and the south low-frequency anticyclone.Further research shows that rainstorms with a daily rainfall of 100 mm or more are mainly low-frequency cyclones,accounting for 60%of the total number of rainstorms.Low-frequency cyclone-type mobile characteristics are very consistent in the 30 days before the occurrence of rainstorms.This consistency can be used to establish the dynamic prediction model of heavy rain.Using this method,the heaviest rainfalls in the flood season in the last 5 years are forecasted accurately,and the lead time is more than 12 days.
Based on the wind field and vapor field at 700 hPa of NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis dataset,and the precipitation data of 11 stations in Shanghai,this paper applies the method of the extended period rainstorm forecast in Shanghai.Based on the data of 112 rainstorm days in the past 10 years,the static prediction model of low frequency system is established.One is the type of northern low-frequency anticyclone and the south low-frequency cyclone,while the other is the type of northern low-frequency cyclone and the south low-frequency anticyclone.Further research shows that rainstorms with a daily rainfall of 100 mm or more are mainly low-frequency cyclones,accounting for 60%of the total number of rainstorms.Low-frequency cyclone-type mobile characteristics are very consistent in the 30 days before the occurrence of rainstorms.This consistency can be used to establish the dynamic prediction model of heavy rain.Using this method,the heaviest rainfalls in the flood season in the last 5 years are forecasted accurately,and the lead time is more than 12 days.
引文
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丁一汇,梁萍.2010.基于MJO的延伸预报.气象,36(7):111-122.
胡春丽,李辑,陈伯民,等.2013.低频天气图方法在辽宁夏季延伸期强降水预报中的应用.气象科技进展,3(1):64-67.
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李崇银,肖子牛.1991.赤道太平洋增暖对全球大气30~60天振荡的激发.科学通报,36(15):1157-1160.
梁萍,丁一汇.2012.基于季节内振荡的延伸期预报试验.大气科学,36(1):102-116.
孙国武,陈葆德.1998.青藏高原上空大气低频波的振荡及其经向传播.大气科学,22(3):250-256.
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孙国武,信飞,孔春燕,等.2010.大气低频振荡与延伸期预报.高原气象,29(5):1142-1147.
信飞,李振坤,王超.2013.经验正交函数分解在上海地区低频天气图方法中的应用.气象科技进展,3(1):52-56.
杨鉴初,归佩兰.1979.关于长期天气过程的划分.气象,4(6):14-18.
章基嘉,孙国武,陈葆德.1991.青藏高原大气低频变化的研究.北京:气象出版社,105-106.
张耀华,周兵,张耀存.2012.2010年南方持续暴雨期大气环流异常及其低频特征研究.气象,38(11):1367-1377.
Madden R A,Julian P R.1971.Detection of a 40-50 day oscillationin the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific.J Atmos Sci.28(5):702-708.
Madden R A,Julian P R.1972.Description of global-scale circulationcells in the tropics with a 40-50 day period.J Atmos Sci,29(6):1109-1123.
Jones C,Carvalho L M V,Higgins R W,et al.2004.A statistical forecast model of tropical intraseasonal convective anomalies.J Climate,17:2078-2095.
Wheeler M.Hendon H H.2004.An all-season real-time multivariate MJC)index:Development of an index for monitoring and prediction.Mon Wea Rev,132(8):1917-1932.
Yang Hui,Li Chongyin.2003.The relation between atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation and summer severe flood and drought in the Changjiang-Huaihe River basin.Adv Atmos Sci,20(4):540-553.
丁一汇,梁萍.2010.基于MJO的延伸预报.气象,36(7):111-122.
胡春丽,李辑,陈伯民,等.2013.低频天气图方法在辽宁夏季延伸期强降水预报中的应用.气象科技进展,3(1):64-67.
琚建华.赵而旭.2005.东亚夏季风区的低频振荡对长江中下游旱涝的影响.热带气象报,21(2):163-171.
李崇银.1990.大气中的季节内振荡.大气科学,14(1):32-45.
李崇银,肖子牛.1991.赤道太平洋增暖对全球大气30~60天振荡的激发.科学通报,36(15):1157-1160.
梁萍,丁一汇.2012.基于季节内振荡的延伸期预报试验.大气科学,36(1):102-116.
孙国武,陈葆德.1998.青藏高原上空大气低频波的振荡及其经向传播.大气科学,22(3):250-256.
孙国武,李震坤,信飞,等.2013.延伸期天气过程预报的一种新方法-低频天气图.大气科学,37(4):945-954.
孙国武,信飞,孔春燕,等.2010.大气低频振荡与延伸期预报.高原气象,29(5):1142-1147.
信飞,李振坤,王超.2013.经验正交函数分解在上海地区低频天气图方法中的应用.气象科技进展,3(1):52-56.
杨鉴初,归佩兰.1979.关于长期天气过程的划分.气象,4(6):14-18.
章基嘉,孙国武,陈葆德.1991.青藏高原大气低频变化的研究.北京:气象出版社,105-106.
张耀华,周兵,张耀存.2012.2010年南方持续暴雨期大气环流异常及其低频特征研究.气象,38(11):1367-1377.
Madden R A,Julian P R.1971.Detection of a 40-50 day oscillationin the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific.J Atmos Sci.28(5):702-708.
Madden R A,Julian P R.1972.Description of global-scale circulationcells in the tropics with a 40-50 day period.J Atmos Sci,29(6):1109-1123.
Jones C,Carvalho L M V,Higgins R W,et al.2004.A statistical forecast model of tropical intraseasonal convective anomalies.J Climate,17:2078-2095.
Wheeler M.Hendon H H.2004.An all-season real-time multivariate MJC)index:Development of an index for monitoring and prediction.Mon Wea Rev,132(8):1917-1932.
Yang Hui,Li Chongyin.2003.The relation between atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation and summer severe flood and drought in the Changjiang-Huaihe River basin.Adv Atmos Sci,20(4):540-553.
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