长江中下游2015年盛夏低温的大气环流特征及ENSO的影响
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摘要
利用NCEP再分析资料和ERSST资料分析了长江中下游2015年盛夏低温的大气环流特征,并探讨2015/2016年厄尔尼诺事件的可能影响。研究表明:长江中下游2015年盛夏气温为1961年以来第二低。造成长江中下游低温的直接原因是2015年盛夏欧亚大气环流异常稳定,在亚洲地区表现亚洲北部阻塞高压与东亚低槽形成的偶极子形势,导致冷空气不断南下影响到长江中下游地区;而2015年夏季厄尔尼诺快速发展可能是2015年盛夏欧亚大气环流异常的主要原因。
The atmospheric circulation for the low temperature in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in midsumer 2015 and the possible impact of the 2015/2016 El Nino event are analyzed by using NCEP reanalysis data and ERSST data.The results show that the 2015 midsummer mean temperature was lower than normal,which ranks the second lowest since 1961.The direct cause of the low temperature in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was the abnormal consistent Eurasian atmospheric circulation in midsummer of 2015.In the Asian Region,the dipole pattern of the blocking over north Asia and the low trough over East Asia led to the cold air affecting the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.El Nino developed rapidly in the summer of 2015,which might be the possible main reason for the Eurasian atmospheric circulation anomalies in the midsummer of 2015.
The atmospheric circulation for the low temperature in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in midsumer 2015 and the possible impact of the 2015/2016 El Nino event are analyzed by using NCEP reanalysis data and ERSST data.The results show that the 2015 midsummer mean temperature was lower than normal,which ranks the second lowest since 1961.The direct cause of the low temperature in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was the abnormal consistent Eurasian atmospheric circulation in midsummer of 2015.In the Asian Region,the dipole pattern of the blocking over north Asia and the low trough over East Asia led to the cold air affecting the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.El Nino developed rapidly in the summer of 2015,which might be the possible main reason for the Eurasian atmospheric circulation anomalies in the midsummer of 2015.
引文
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Wu Bo,Zhou Tianjun,Li Tim,2009.Seasonally evolving dominant interannual variability modes of East Asian climate[J].J Climate.22:2992-3005,
Zhang Renhe,Akimasa Sumi,Masahide Kinoto.1999.A diagnosticstudy of the impact of El Nino on the precipitation in China[J].Adv Atmos Sci,16(2):229-241.
陈丽娟,顾薇.丁婷,等.2016,2015年汛期气候预测先兆信号的综合分析[J].气象,42(4):496-506.
黄荣辉,傅云飞,臧晓云,1996.亚洲季风与ENSO循环的相互作用[J].气候与环境研究,1(1):38-54.
黄荣辉,孙凤英,1994.热带西太平洋暖池的热状态及其上空的对流活动对东亚夏季气候异常的影响[J].大气科学.18(2):141-151.
邵勰,廖要明,柳艳菊,等,2016、2015年全球重大天气气候事件及其成因[J].气象,42(4):1-10.
邵勰,周兵,2016.2015/2016年超强厄尔尼诺事件气候监测及诊断分析[J].气象,42(5):540-547.
司东,柳艳菊,邵勰,等,2016.2015年海洋和大气环流异常对中国气候的影响[J].气象,42(4):481-488.
唐恬,金荣花,彭相瑜,等,2014.2013年夏季我国南方区域性高温天气的极端性分析[J].气象,40(10):1207-1215.
陶诗言,徐淑英,1962.夏季江淮流域持久性早涝现象的环流特征[J].气象学报,32(1):1-10.
王东阡,王艳姣,崔童,等,2016.2015年夏季气候异常特征及其成因简析[J].气象,42(1):115-121.
王鹏岭,周兵,柳艳菊,等,2015.2014年海洋和大气环流异常及对中国气候的影响[J].气象,41(4):489-496.
王羱,桑悦洋,张立凤,2015.2013年夏季浙江省高温干旱环流异常分析[J].气象科学,35(2):140-149.
吴国雄,刘平,刘屹岷,等,2000.印度洋海温异常对西太平洋副热带高压的影响——大气中的两级热力适应[J].气象学报,58(5):613-552.
姚秀萍,于玉斌,2005.2003年梅雨期干冷空气的活动及其对梅雨降水的作用[J].大气科学,28(6):973-984.
袁媛,高辉,贾小龙,等,2016.2014—2016年超强厄尔尼诺事件的气候影响[J].气象,42(5):532-539.
张庆云,郭恒,2014.夏季长江淮河流域异常降求事件环流差异及机理研究[J].大气科学,38(4):656-669.
宗海锋,张庆云,陈烈庭,2008.东亚太平洋遥相关型形成过程与EN SO盛期海温关系的研究[J].大气科学,32(2):220-230.
Gill A E.1980.Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation[J].Quart J Roy Meteor Soc,106:447-462.
Huang Ronghui.Wu Yifeng.1989.The influence of ENSO on the summer climate change in China and its mechanism[J].Adv Atmos Sci,6(l):21-32.
Wang Bin,1995.Interdecadal changes in El Nino Onset in the last four deeades[J].J Climate,8:267-285.
Wang Bin,Wu Renguang,Fu Xiaohua,2000.Pacific-East Asian teleconnection:how does ENSO affect East Asian climate?[J].J Climate,13:1517-1536.
Wang Bin,Zhang Qin,2002.Pacific-East Asian teleconnection.Part 11:How the Philippine sea anomalous anticyclone is eastablished during El Nino development[J].J Climate.15,3252-3265.
Wu Bo,Zhou Tianjun,Li Tim,2009.Seasonally evolving dominant interannual variability modes of East Asian climate[J].J Climate.22:2992-3005,
Zhang Renhe,Akimasa Sumi,Masahide Kinoto.1999.A diagnosticstudy of the impact of El Nino on the precipitation in China[J].Adv Atmos Sci,16(2):229-241.
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