可变模糊集理论在江西省水资源承载力评价中的应用
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摘要
结合江西省2009年自然、社会和经济以及水资源资料,选取降水量、灌溉率、水资源开发利用程度、生活用水定额、人均供水量、万元GDP用水量、生态环境用水率、缺水率作为评价指标,应用可变模糊评价模型对江西省11个市的水资源承载力进行了评价研究.能够科学、合理地确定样本指标对各级指标标准区间的相对隶属度、相对隶属函数,并且能够通过变化模型及其参数,合理地确定出样本的评价等级,提高对样本等级评价的可信度.最后与模糊识别理论计算出的结果进行比较,评价等级基本保持一致.研究结果表明,江西省整体水资源承载力等级为1~2级,水资源开发利用已具有一定规模,部分区域水资源开发潜力较大.
Based on the data of nature,society,economics and water resources of Jiangxi Province in 2009,we chose eight indices which are the annual precipitation,irrigation ratio,water resource exploitation and utilization,per capita domestic water consumption,the ratio of the water supply to the gross available water resources,water consumption of ten thousand yuan GDP the per capita water supply and the ecological water use ratio and rate of water shortage to evaluate the water resources sustainable utilization by means of variable fuzzy assessment method.This method can reasonably identify the relative membership degree and relative membership function between the sample index and standard interval of each level index and properly determine the assessment level of each sample by varying the model and its parameters,so that the reliability of assessment can be improved.The results show that the comprehensive grade is 1~2 for Jiangxi Province,where the current water exploitation and use has reached a relative degree.In the future,measures such as increasing public awareness of water conservation education,and controlling the planting area should be carried out in order to utilize water resources scientifically and regionally.
Based on the data of nature,society,economics and water resources of Jiangxi Province in 2009,we chose eight indices which are the annual precipitation,irrigation ratio,water resource exploitation and utilization,per capita domestic water consumption,the ratio of the water supply to the gross available water resources,water consumption of ten thousand yuan GDP the per capita water supply and the ecological water use ratio and rate of water shortage to evaluate the water resources sustainable utilization by means of variable fuzzy assessment method.This method can reasonably identify the relative membership degree and relative membership function between the sample index and standard interval of each level index and properly determine the assessment level of each sample by varying the model and its parameters,so that the reliability of assessment can be improved.The results show that the comprehensive grade is 1~2 for Jiangxi Province,where the current water exploitation and use has reached a relative degree.In the future,measures such as increasing public awareness of water conservation education,and controlling the planting area should be carried out in order to utilize water resources scientifically and regionally.
引文
[1]潘兴瑶,夏军,李法虎,等.基于GIS的北方典型区水资源承载力研究-以北京市通州区为例[J].自然资源学报,2007,22(4):664.671.
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[3]中国科学院可持续发展研究组.中国可持续发展战略报告[M].北京:科学出版社,2000.
[4]龙腾锐,姜文超.水资源(环境)承载力的研究进展[J].水科学进展,2003,14(2):249-254.
[5]Falkenmark M.The massive water scarcity now threatening Africa-Why isn't it being addressed[J].Ambio,1989,18:12-18.
[6]徐中民.情景基础的水资源承载力多目标分析理论及应用[J].冰川冻土,1999,2I(2):100-106.
[7]夏军.水资源安全的度量-水资源承载力的研究与挑战[J].海河水利,2002(2):5-7.
[8]朱一中,夏军,谈戈.关于水资源承载力理论与方法的研究[J].地理科学进展,2002,21(2):180.188.
[9]陈守煜.水资源与防洪系统可变模糊集理论与方法[M].大连:大连理工大学出版社,2005.
[10]陈守煜.可变模糊集理论哲学基础[J].大连理工大学学报(社会科学版),2005,26(1):53-57.
[11]吴敦银,喻中文,王凤.江西省水资源分布与旱灾发生规律初探[J]。江西水利科技,2005,31(1):31-33.
[12]龙兴,胡魁德,喻中文.江西水资源问题研究[J].水文,2009,29(5):79-82.
[13]彭忠福,马学明,刘雁翼.江西省水资源承载力评价研究[J].人民长江,2011,42(18):73-76.
[14]姚治君,王建华,江东,等.区域水资源承载力的研究进展及其理论分析[J].水科学进展,2002,13(1):111-115.
[15]Meng Lihong,Chen Yaning,Li Weihong,et al.Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for water resources carrying capacity in Tarim River Basin,Xinjiang,China[J].Chinese Journal of Geographical sciences,2009,19(1):89-95.
[16]Jay Walmsley.Indicators of sustainable development for catchments management in South Africa Review of indicators from around the world[J].Water SA,2001,27(4):539-550.
[17]水利电力部水文局.中国水资源评价[M].北京:水利电力出版社,1987:78-103.
[18]潘理中.中国水资源与世界各国水资源统计指标的比较[J].水科学进展,1996,7(4):376-380
[19]左东启,戴树声,袁汝华等.水资源评价指标体系研究[J].水科学进展1996 7(4):367-373
[20]秦莉云,金忠青.淮河流域水资源承载能力的评价分析[J].水文,2001,21(3):14-17.
[21]黄永基,马滇珍.区域水资源供需分析方法[M].江苏南京:河海大学出版社,1990:244-257.
[22]许有鹏.干旱地区水资源承载能力综合评价研究[J].自然资源学报,1993,8(3):230-234.
[23]孙栋元,赵成义,李菊燕,等.基于层次分析法的干旱内陆河流域生态环境需水评价:以新疆台兰河流域为例[J].水土保持通报,2011,31(5):108.114.
[24]李亚伟,陈守煜,傅铁.基于模糊识别的水资源承载能力综合评价[J].水科学进展,2005,16(5):726-729.
[2]陈守煜,胡吉敏.可变模糊评价法及在水资源承载能力评价中的应用[J].水利学报,2006,37(3):264-271.
[3]中国科学院可持续发展研究组.中国可持续发展战略报告[M].北京:科学出版社,2000.
[4]龙腾锐,姜文超.水资源(环境)承载力的研究进展[J].水科学进展,2003,14(2):249-254.
[5]Falkenmark M.The massive water scarcity now threatening Africa-Why isn't it being addressed[J].Ambio,1989,18:12-18.
[6]徐中民.情景基础的水资源承载力多目标分析理论及应用[J].冰川冻土,1999,2I(2):100-106.
[7]夏军.水资源安全的度量-水资源承载力的研究与挑战[J].海河水利,2002(2):5-7.
[8]朱一中,夏军,谈戈.关于水资源承载力理论与方法的研究[J].地理科学进展,2002,21(2):180.188.
[9]陈守煜.水资源与防洪系统可变模糊集理论与方法[M].大连:大连理工大学出版社,2005.
[10]陈守煜.可变模糊集理论哲学基础[J].大连理工大学学报(社会科学版),2005,26(1):53-57.
[11]吴敦银,喻中文,王凤.江西省水资源分布与旱灾发生规律初探[J]。江西水利科技,2005,31(1):31-33.
[12]龙兴,胡魁德,喻中文.江西水资源问题研究[J].水文,2009,29(5):79-82.
[13]彭忠福,马学明,刘雁翼.江西省水资源承载力评价研究[J].人民长江,2011,42(18):73-76.
[14]姚治君,王建华,江东,等.区域水资源承载力的研究进展及其理论分析[J].水科学进展,2002,13(1):111-115.
[15]Meng Lihong,Chen Yaning,Li Weihong,et al.Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for water resources carrying capacity in Tarim River Basin,Xinjiang,China[J].Chinese Journal of Geographical sciences,2009,19(1):89-95.
[16]Jay Walmsley.Indicators of sustainable development for catchments management in South Africa Review of indicators from around the world[J].Water SA,2001,27(4):539-550.
[17]水利电力部水文局.中国水资源评价[M].北京:水利电力出版社,1987:78-103.
[18]潘理中.中国水资源与世界各国水资源统计指标的比较[J].水科学进展,1996,7(4):376-380
[19]左东启,戴树声,袁汝华等.水资源评价指标体系研究[J].水科学进展1996 7(4):367-373
[20]秦莉云,金忠青.淮河流域水资源承载能力的评价分析[J].水文,2001,21(3):14-17.
[21]黄永基,马滇珍.区域水资源供需分析方法[M].江苏南京:河海大学出版社,1990:244-257.
[22]许有鹏.干旱地区水资源承载能力综合评价研究[J].自然资源学报,1993,8(3):230-234.
[23]孙栋元,赵成义,李菊燕,等.基于层次分析法的干旱内陆河流域生态环境需水评价:以新疆台兰河流域为例[J].水土保持通报,2011,31(5):108.114.
[24]李亚伟,陈守煜,傅铁.基于模糊识别的水资源承载能力综合评价[J].水科学进展,2005,16(5):726-729.
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