运用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测安徽省肺结核发病趋势
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摘要
目的建立肺结核灰色预测模型GM(1,1),应用于安徽省肺结核发病趋势的预测。方法根据公共卫生科学数据中心中2005~2012年安徽省肺结核发病报告资料建立肺结核发病率灰色预测模型GM(1,1),同时采用该模型对安徽省2013~2015年的肺结核发病率进行预测分析。结果通过灰色预测模型GM(1,1)而建立一个Y(t)=-1433.7369e-0.0654(t-1)+1531.5997预测模型,利用建立的模型预测安徽省2013~2015年安徽省肺结核发病率分别为57.4372/10万、53.7996/10万和50.3923/10万。结论通过实践应用证实,GM(1,1)模型预测安徽省肺结核发病率符合目前发展趋势,结果具有较高的参考应用价值。
Objective To establish grey system GM( 1,1) model of pulmonary tuberculosis,to apply on prevention of incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Anhui Province.Methods Established grey system GM( 1,1) model of the morbidity of pulmonary tuberculosis according to the morbidity incidence reporting data of public health science data center from 2005 to 2012 in Anhui Province,at the same time to predictively analyze the morbidity of pulmonary tuberculosis through the model from 2013 to 2015 in Anhui Province.Results Through the grey system GM( 1,1) model to establish prediction model of Y(t)=-1433.7369e-0.0654(t-1)+1531.5997 which had predicted that the morbidity of pulmonary tuberculosis were 57.4372 per 0.1 million,53.7996 per 0.1 million,and 50.3923 per 0.1 million from 2013 to 2015 in Anhui Province.Conclusion Practical application has proved that,grey system GM(1,1) model on prevention of incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Anhui Province is accord with currently development,is worthy of higher referenced application value.
Objective To establish grey system GM( 1,1) model of pulmonary tuberculosis,to apply on prevention of incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Anhui Province.Methods Established grey system GM( 1,1) model of the morbidity of pulmonary tuberculosis according to the morbidity incidence reporting data of public health science data center from 2005 to 2012 in Anhui Province,at the same time to predictively analyze the morbidity of pulmonary tuberculosis through the model from 2013 to 2015 in Anhui Province.Results Through the grey system GM( 1,1) model to establish prediction model of Y(t)=-1433.7369e-0.0654(t-1)+1531.5997 which had predicted that the morbidity of pulmonary tuberculosis were 57.4372 per 0.1 million,53.7996 per 0.1 million,and 50.3923 per 0.1 million from 2013 to 2015 in Anhui Province.Conclusion Practical application has proved that,grey system GM(1,1) model on prevention of incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Anhui Province is accord with currently development,is worthy of higher referenced application value.
引文
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[8]白燕,张思敬,马光思.基于灰色残差GM(1,1)模型的狂犬病流行趋势的预测及分析[J].西北大学学报(自然科学网络版),2006,4(4):141-142.
[9]钱建东,陈鸣,张靳冬,等.灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测常州市肺结核发病趋势[J].公共卫生与预防医学,2012,23(5):7-8.
[10]易静,胡代玉,杨德香,等.三种预测模型在肺结核发病预测中的预测[J].中国全科医学,2012,15(13):1495-1497.
[11]崔国强.利用灰色系统GM(1.1)模型预测北京市怀柔区肺结核发病率[J].首都公共卫生,2014,8(3):109-111.
[12]吴湘.湖北省荆门市肺结核病流行趋势做灰色模型分析[A].2011年中国防痨协会全国学术会议论文集[C].2011:75-76.
[2]卫生部.卫生部召开新闻发布会介绍全国肺结核疫情现状[EB/OL].http://www.gov.cn/gzdt/2011-03/21/content-1828718.htm.
[3]李云,穆卫明,陆建方.肺结核发病率的灰色模型预测及及时间趋势分析[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2011,15(1):87-88.
[4]梁红慧,农初师,黄夏萍.灰色系统GM(1,1模型在隐性梅毒发病预测中的应用[J].数理医药学杂志,2012,25(1):3-5.
[5]程志勇,赵贺春.吉林市2010年丙型病毒性肝炎发病率的灰色系统GM(1,1模型预测[J].中国卫生工程学,2011,1(2):158-159.
[6]张天良.GM(1,1)模型在预测人口出生率研究中的应用[J].中国卫生统计,2000,17(2):88.
[7]黄洪福.灰色数列GM(1,1)模型在“EHF”发展趋势预测中的应用[J].现代预防医学,2000,7(1):107.
[8]白燕,张思敬,马光思.基于灰色残差GM(1,1)模型的狂犬病流行趋势的预测及分析[J].西北大学学报(自然科学网络版),2006,4(4):141-142.
[9]钱建东,陈鸣,张靳冬,等.灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测常州市肺结核发病趋势[J].公共卫生与预防医学,2012,23(5):7-8.
[10]易静,胡代玉,杨德香,等.三种预测模型在肺结核发病预测中的预测[J].中国全科医学,2012,15(13):1495-1497.
[11]崔国强.利用灰色系统GM(1.1)模型预测北京市怀柔区肺结核发病率[J].首都公共卫生,2014,8(3):109-111.
[12]吴湘.湖北省荆门市肺结核病流行趋势做灰色模型分析[A].2011年中国防痨协会全国学术会议论文集[C].2011:75-76.
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