三峡工程对鄱阳湖水资源生态效应的影响
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摘要
在三峡工程现有调度规则的前提下,建立了反映水文情势变化的人工神经网络模型、鄱阳湖区间分布式水文模型、湖区二维水量水质模拟模型,并利用这些模型对三峡工程运行后对鄱阳湖防洪、水资源与水质生态等方面的效应进行了定量分析.分析结果表明:在防洪影响方面,三峡水库预泄期鄱阳湖水位抬升,低水增幅大于高水增幅,而三峡水库蓄水期鄱阳湖水位降低,低水降幅大于高水降幅,总体上对鄱阳湖防洪影响有限;在水质影响方面,鄱阳湖区水质浓度与五河来水的流量及其污染物浓度关系密切,受长江流量影响的关系并不大;在供水影响方面,三峡工程运行将对鄱阳湖枯水期供水形势产生较大影响;在生态影响方面,三峡工程运行后对鄱阳湖植被面积变化有一定的影响,影响大小与月份的不同有关,并将导致鄱阳湖不同区域湖滩草洲显露日期提前和显露时间有所增加,这将对鄱阳湖珍稀候鸟栖息地环境造成不利影响.
On the premise of the existing operating rules of the Three Gorges Project,quantitative analysis of the effects of the project on the flood control,water resources,water quality,and ecosystem in Poyang Lake was conducted by establishing a BP artificial neural network model that can reflect the changes of hydrological situations,a distributed hydrological model for Poyang Lake,and a two-dimensional water quality and water quantity simulation model for the lake.The results show the following: In terms of the effects on flood control,the water level in Poyang Lake increased in the pre-discharge period of the Three Gorges Project,and the increase rate of the low water level was higher than that of the high water level,while in the storage period of the project,the water level in Poyang Lake decreased,and the decrease rate of the low water level was higher than that of the high water level.The project had limited effects on flood control on the whole.In terms of the effects on water quality,the water quality in Poyang Lake was in close relation with the inflow and concentration of pollutants of the Wuhe River,and was not significantly affected by the discharge of the Yangtze River.In terms of the effects on the water supply,the operation of the Three Gorges Project will have great influence on the water supply in dry seasons in Poyang Lake.In terms of the effects on ecology,the project will have an effect on the changes in vegetation area in the lake,and the degree of effect will differ in different months.Besides,the lake beach and grass moor in different lake areas will appear in advance and for a longer duration,negatively affecting the environment of the habitat of rare migratory birds in the lake area.
On the premise of the existing operating rules of the Three Gorges Project,quantitative analysis of the effects of the project on the flood control,water resources,water quality,and ecosystem in Poyang Lake was conducted by establishing a BP artificial neural network model that can reflect the changes of hydrological situations,a distributed hydrological model for Poyang Lake,and a two-dimensional water quality and water quantity simulation model for the lake.The results show the following: In terms of the effects on flood control,the water level in Poyang Lake increased in the pre-discharge period of the Three Gorges Project,and the increase rate of the low water level was higher than that of the high water level,while in the storage period of the project,the water level in Poyang Lake decreased,and the decrease rate of the low water level was higher than that of the high water level.The project had limited effects on flood control on the whole.In terms of the effects on water quality,the water quality in Poyang Lake was in close relation with the inflow and concentration of pollutants of the Wuhe River,and was not significantly affected by the discharge of the Yangtze River.In terms of the effects on the water supply,the operation of the Three Gorges Project will have great influence on the water supply in dry seasons in Poyang Lake.In terms of the effects on ecology,the project will have an effect on the changes in vegetation area in the lake,and the degree of effect will differ in different months.Besides,the lake beach and grass moor in different lake areas will appear in advance and for a longer duration,negatively affecting the environment of the habitat of rare migratory birds in the lake area.
引文
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[2]刘影,徐燕.三峡工程对鄱阳湖候鸟保护区的影响及对策探讨[J].江西师范大学学报:自然科学版,1994,18(4):375-380.(LIU Ying,XU Yan.The study of influence and countermeasure of Sanxia Project to Poyang Lake’s migratory birds reserve[J].Journal ofJiangxi Normal University,1994,18(4):375-380.(in Chinese))
[3]姜加虎,黄群.三峡工程对鄱阳湖水位影响研究[J].自然资源学报,1997(3):219-224.(JIANG Jia-hu,HUANG Qun.A study ofthe impact of the Three Gorges Project on the water level of Poyang Lake[J].Journal of Natural Resources,1997(3):219-224.(inChinese))
[4]施勇,栾震宇.三峡工程运行后对鄱阳湖及江西五河的影响研究:对鄱阳湖水位变化的影响[R].南京:南京水利科学研究院,2009.
[5]长江水利委员会.三峡工程综合利用调度研究[M].武汉:湖北科学技术出版社,1997.
[6]董增川,李大勇.三峡工程运行后对鄱阳湖及五河尾闾的影响研究:对水质和生态变化影响分析[R].南京:河海大学,2009.
[7]谭维炎.计算浅水动力学:有限体积法的应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1998.
[8]赵棣华,戚晨,庾维德.平面二维水流-水质有限体积法及黎曼近似解模型[J].水科学进展,2000,11(4):368-374.(ZHAODi-hua,QI Chen,YU Wei-de.Finite volume method of Rieman solver for depth-averaged two-dimensional flow-pollutants coupled model[J].Advances in Water Sciences,2000,11(4):368-374.(in Chinese))
[9]ROGERS B D,BORTHWICK A G L,TAYLOR P H.Mathematical balancing of flux gradient and source terms prior to using Roe’sapproximate Riemann solver[J].J Comp Phys,2003,192:422-451.
[10]董增川,梁忠民.三峡工程运行后对鄱阳湖及五河尾闾的影响研究:对防洪影响的分析[R].南京:河海大学,2009.
[11]许新发,丁敏君.遥感在鄱阳湖监测中的应用[R].南昌:江西省水利科学研究院,2009.
[12]中国科学院三峡工程生态与环境科研项目领导小组.长江三峡工程对生态与环境的影响及对策研究[M].北京:科学出版社,1988.
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