新一代三峡水利枢纽短期洪水预报系统的构建与检验
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摘要
本文主要介绍新一代三峡水利枢纽短期洪水预报系统的设计与实现,该系统可利用目前三峡区间多种降雨估测信息源作为系统的输入条件;流域产汇流方面,采用基于地貌特征的流域分布式水文模型GBHM模拟三峡区间降雨径流过程,该模型考虑了汇流区间内不同土地利用类型和土壤类型对山坡产流的影响,能较好地描述研究区域水文过程的时空分布特征;库区洪水演进方面,采用MIKE11中的一维水动力学模型耦合GBHM模型输出区间流量来模拟三峡水库内长江干流河道的洪水演进过程。基于历史资料的模拟结果显示,该预报系统可以较为准确地模拟三峡区间的暴雨洪水、库区洪水演进等一系列水文过程。
In this paper we introduce the design and implementation of a next generation short-term flood prediction system for the Three Gorges project.This prediction system is able to take multiple sources of rainfall data as inputs,and applies a distributed geomorphology-based hydrological model(GBHM) to simulation of rainfall-runoff processes.It is believed that by taking account the heterogeneity of land-use and soil types into the hill-slope hydrological processes,the GBHM performs better in reproducing spatiotemporal patterns of hydrologic variables.For the flood routing in the Three Gorges reservoir,MIKE11 model is coupled to simulate the hydrodynamic processes in the Yangtze mainstream across the reservoir.The evaluation results based on historical data shows that this new generation prediction system can capture the hydrological responses accurately,including the floods generated in the Three Gorges region,and the floods routing in the reservoir.
In this paper we introduce the design and implementation of a next generation short-term flood prediction system for the Three Gorges project.This prediction system is able to take multiple sources of rainfall data as inputs,and applies a distributed geomorphology-based hydrological model(GBHM) to simulation of rainfall-runoff processes.It is believed that by taking account the heterogeneity of land-use and soil types into the hill-slope hydrological processes,the GBHM performs better in reproducing spatiotemporal patterns of hydrologic variables.For the flood routing in the Three Gorges reservoir,MIKE11 model is coupled to simulate the hydrodynamic processes in the Yangtze mainstream across the reservoir.The evaluation results based on historical data shows that this new generation prediction system can capture the hydrological responses accurately,including the floods generated in the Three Gorges region,and the floods routing in the reservoir.
引文
[1]李哲,杨大文,田富强.基于地面雨情信息的长江三峡区间洪水预报研究[J].水力发电学报,2013,32(1):44-49.LI Zhe,YANG Dawen,TIAN Fuqiang.Flood forecast for Three Gorges region of the Yangtze based on ground-observed rainfall[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2013,32(1):44-49.(in Chinese)
[2]张有芷,张少婕,王政祥.长江三峡区间暴雨洪水分析[J].人民长江,1999,30(3):12-13.ZHANG Youzhi,ZHANG Shaojie,WANG Zhengxiang.Analysis on the storm and flood at Yangtze Three Gorges Region[J].Yangtze River,1999,30(3):12-13.(in Chinese)
[3]许继军,杨大文,蔡治国,等.基于分布式水文模拟的三峡区间洪水预报(I)——模型构建与验证[J].水文,2008,28(1):32.XU Jijun,YANG Dawen,CAI Zhiguo,et al.Flood forecasting in the Three Gorges Reach based on a distributed hydro logical model(I):Modeling and Calibration[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2008,28(1):32.(in Chinese)
[4]长江水利委员会.三峡工程水文研究[MI.武汉:湖北科学技术出版社,1997.Changjiang Water Resources Commission.Hydrological Research for Three Gorges Project[M].Wuhan:Hubei Science and Technology Press,1997.(in Chinese)
[5]李哲,杨大文,洪阳,等.基于天气雷达的长江三峡区间降雨定量估测方法[J].水力发电学报,2014,33(3):29-35.LI Zhe.YANG Dawen,HONG Yang,et al.Radar-based Quantitative Precipitation Estimate in the Three Gorges Region of Yangtze River[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2014,33(3):29-35.(in Chinese)
[6]高冰,杨大文,谷湘潜,等.基于数值天气模式和分布式水文模型的三峡入库洪水预报研究[J].水力发电学报,2012,31(1):20-26.GAO Bing,YANG Dawen,GU Xiangqian,et al.Flood forecast of the Three Gorges Reservoir based on numerical weather forecast model and distributed hydrological model[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2012,31(1):20-26.(in Chinese)
[7]Vivoni E R,Entekhabi D,Hoffman R N.Error propagation of radar rainfall nowcasting fields through a fully distributed flood forecasting model[J].Journal of applied meteorology and climatology,2007,46(6):932-940.
[8]Borga M,Anagnostou E N,Frank E.On the use of real-time radar rainfall estimates for flood prediction in mountainous basins[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2000,105(D2):2269-2280.
[9]Pappenberger F,Thielen J,Del Medico M.The impact of weather forecast improvements on large scale hydrology:analysing a decade of forecasts of the European Flood Alert System[J].Hydrological Processes,2011,25(7):1091-1113.
[10]水利部水文局.中小河流山洪监测与预警预测技术研究[M].北京:科学技术出版社,2010.Hydrology Bureau of Ministry of Water Resources.Flash Floods Monitoring and Prediction in Small and Medium River Basins[MJ.Beijing:China Science and Technology Press,2010.(in Chinese)
[11]Yang D,Herath S,Musiake K.Development of a geomorphology-based hydrological model for large catchments[J].Annual Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,JSCE,1998,42:169-174.
[12]Danish Hydraulic Institute(DHI).MKEII:A Modeling System for Rivers and Channels Reference Manual[R].DHI.2005.
[13]叶守泽,詹道江.工程水文学[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2000.YE Shouze,ZHAN Daojiang.Engineering Hydrology[M].Beijing:China Water Power Press,2000.(in Chinese)
[14]Brocca L,Melone F,Moramarco T.On the estimation of antecedent wetness conditions in rainfall-runoff modellingfJ].Hydrological Processes,2008,22(5):629-642.
[15]吴天蛟,杨汉波,李哲,等.基于MIKE11的三峡库区洪水演进模拟[J].水力发电学报,2014,33(2):51-56.WU Tianjiao,YANG Hanbo,LI Zhe,et al.Modeling of flood routing for Three Gorges Reservoir Area based on MIKE11[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2014,33(2):51-56.(in Chinese)
[16]周建军.三峡水库蓄水后水库、径流、泥沙、运行和水库泥沙数学模型验证等相关问题研究[R].北京:清华大学水利系研究报告,2005.ZHOU Jianjun et al.Some Problems about Runoff,Sediment,Operation and Sediment Mathematical Model Calibration after Water Storage of the Three Gorges Reservoir[R].Beijing:Department of Hydraulic Engineering,Tsinghua University,2005.(in Chinese)
[2]张有芷,张少婕,王政祥.长江三峡区间暴雨洪水分析[J].人民长江,1999,30(3):12-13.ZHANG Youzhi,ZHANG Shaojie,WANG Zhengxiang.Analysis on the storm and flood at Yangtze Three Gorges Region[J].Yangtze River,1999,30(3):12-13.(in Chinese)
[3]许继军,杨大文,蔡治国,等.基于分布式水文模拟的三峡区间洪水预报(I)——模型构建与验证[J].水文,2008,28(1):32.XU Jijun,YANG Dawen,CAI Zhiguo,et al.Flood forecasting in the Three Gorges Reach based on a distributed hydro logical model(I):Modeling and Calibration[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2008,28(1):32.(in Chinese)
[4]长江水利委员会.三峡工程水文研究[MI.武汉:湖北科学技术出版社,1997.Changjiang Water Resources Commission.Hydrological Research for Three Gorges Project[M].Wuhan:Hubei Science and Technology Press,1997.(in Chinese)
[5]李哲,杨大文,洪阳,等.基于天气雷达的长江三峡区间降雨定量估测方法[J].水力发电学报,2014,33(3):29-35.LI Zhe.YANG Dawen,HONG Yang,et al.Radar-based Quantitative Precipitation Estimate in the Three Gorges Region of Yangtze River[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2014,33(3):29-35.(in Chinese)
[6]高冰,杨大文,谷湘潜,等.基于数值天气模式和分布式水文模型的三峡入库洪水预报研究[J].水力发电学报,2012,31(1):20-26.GAO Bing,YANG Dawen,GU Xiangqian,et al.Flood forecast of the Three Gorges Reservoir based on numerical weather forecast model and distributed hydrological model[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2012,31(1):20-26.(in Chinese)
[7]Vivoni E R,Entekhabi D,Hoffman R N.Error propagation of radar rainfall nowcasting fields through a fully distributed flood forecasting model[J].Journal of applied meteorology and climatology,2007,46(6):932-940.
[8]Borga M,Anagnostou E N,Frank E.On the use of real-time radar rainfall estimates for flood prediction in mountainous basins[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2000,105(D2):2269-2280.
[9]Pappenberger F,Thielen J,Del Medico M.The impact of weather forecast improvements on large scale hydrology:analysing a decade of forecasts of the European Flood Alert System[J].Hydrological Processes,2011,25(7):1091-1113.
[10]水利部水文局.中小河流山洪监测与预警预测技术研究[M].北京:科学技术出版社,2010.Hydrology Bureau of Ministry of Water Resources.Flash Floods Monitoring and Prediction in Small and Medium River Basins[MJ.Beijing:China Science and Technology Press,2010.(in Chinese)
[11]Yang D,Herath S,Musiake K.Development of a geomorphology-based hydrological model for large catchments[J].Annual Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,JSCE,1998,42:169-174.
[12]Danish Hydraulic Institute(DHI).MKEII:A Modeling System for Rivers and Channels Reference Manual[R].DHI.2005.
[13]叶守泽,詹道江.工程水文学[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2000.YE Shouze,ZHAN Daojiang.Engineering Hydrology[M].Beijing:China Water Power Press,2000.(in Chinese)
[14]Brocca L,Melone F,Moramarco T.On the estimation of antecedent wetness conditions in rainfall-runoff modellingfJ].Hydrological Processes,2008,22(5):629-642.
[15]吴天蛟,杨汉波,李哲,等.基于MIKE11的三峡库区洪水演进模拟[J].水力发电学报,2014,33(2):51-56.WU Tianjiao,YANG Hanbo,LI Zhe,et al.Modeling of flood routing for Three Gorges Reservoir Area based on MIKE11[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2014,33(2):51-56.(in Chinese)
[16]周建军.三峡水库蓄水后水库、径流、泥沙、运行和水库泥沙数学模型验证等相关问题研究[R].北京:清华大学水利系研究报告,2005.ZHOU Jianjun et al.Some Problems about Runoff,Sediment,Operation and Sediment Mathematical Model Calibration after Water Storage of the Three Gorges Reservoir[R].Beijing:Department of Hydraulic Engineering,Tsinghua University,2005.(in Chinese)
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