长江流域极端强降水分布特征的统计拟合
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摘要
基于长江流域147个气象站1960—2005年最大值降水序列(AM)与超门限峰值降水序列(POT),选取4大类20种分布函数,采用极大似然法和线性矩法估算了参数,经柯尔莫洛夫-斯米尔诺夫检验,确定了降水极值的最优概率模型。对AM与POT两套极端强降水序列的频率分析均表明,W akeby分布函数能够较好的拟合长江流域降水极值的概率分布。同时指出了降水极值的拟合存在的不确定性。
20 distribution functions which come from 4 categories for the AM and POT extreme precipitation series at 147 stations over the Yangtze River Basin,have been applied to obtain the robust probability model which fits for each station by KS goodness of fit test.Research results show that Wakeby distribution can simulate the probability distribution of precipitation extremes calculated both from AM and POT series quite well.But there are still some uncertainties for the estimated design value of extreme precipitation.
20 distribution functions which come from 4 categories for the AM and POT extreme precipitation series at 147 stations over the Yangtze River Basin,have been applied to obtain the robust probability model which fits for each station by KS goodness of fit test.Research results show that Wakeby distribution can simulate the probability distribution of precipitation extremes calculated both from AM and POT series quite well.But there are still some uncertainties for the estimated design value of extreme precipitation.
引文
[1]于新文,丁裕国.中国东部地区暴雨的概率特征——基于泊松分布的统计模拟.自然灾害学报,2006,15(4):13-18.
[2]屠其璞,丁裕国.气象应用概率统计学.北京:气象出版社,1984.
[3]么枕生,丁裕国.气候统计.北京:气象出版社,1990.
[4]茆诗松,王静龙,史定华,等.统计手册.北京:科学出版社,2003.
[5]肖卉,姜爱军,沈?,等.江苏省最大日降水量时空分布特征及其统计拟合.气象科学,2006,26(2):177-182.
[6]刘学华,吴洪宝.中国夏季雨日降水量的概率分布.南京气象学院学报,2006,29(2):173-180.
[7]Groisman P YA,Karl TR,Easterling D R.Changes in the proba-bility of heavy precipitation:important indicator of climate change.Climate Change,1999,42:243-283.
[8]朱国庆,张维,张小薇,等.极值理论应用研究进展评析.系统工程学报,2001,16(1):72-77.
[9]蔡敏,丁裕国,江志红.L-矩估计方法在极端降水研究中的应用.气象科学,2007,27(6):597-603.
[10]Hosking J R M,Wallis J R.Regional frequency ananlysis——anapproach based on L-moment.London:Cambridge UniversityPress,1997.
[11]Park J S,Jung HS,Kim R S,Hooh J.Modelling summer extremerainfall over the Korean Peninsula using Wakeby distribution.In-ternational Journal of Climatology,2002,21:1371-1384.
[12]黄振平,王春霞,马军建.历史洪水重现期的误差对设计洪水的影响.河海大学学报,2002,30(1):79-82.
[2]屠其璞,丁裕国.气象应用概率统计学.北京:气象出版社,1984.
[3]么枕生,丁裕国.气候统计.北京:气象出版社,1990.
[4]茆诗松,王静龙,史定华,等.统计手册.北京:科学出版社,2003.
[5]肖卉,姜爱军,沈?,等.江苏省最大日降水量时空分布特征及其统计拟合.气象科学,2006,26(2):177-182.
[6]刘学华,吴洪宝.中国夏季雨日降水量的概率分布.南京气象学院学报,2006,29(2):173-180.
[7]Groisman P YA,Karl TR,Easterling D R.Changes in the proba-bility of heavy precipitation:important indicator of climate change.Climate Change,1999,42:243-283.
[8]朱国庆,张维,张小薇,等.极值理论应用研究进展评析.系统工程学报,2001,16(1):72-77.
[9]蔡敏,丁裕国,江志红.L-矩估计方法在极端降水研究中的应用.气象科学,2007,27(6):597-603.
[10]Hosking J R M,Wallis J R.Regional frequency ananlysis——anapproach based on L-moment.London:Cambridge UniversityPress,1997.
[11]Park J S,Jung HS,Kim R S,Hooh J.Modelling summer extremerainfall over the Korean Peninsula using Wakeby distribution.In-ternational Journal of Climatology,2002,21:1371-1384.
[12]黄振平,王春霞,马军建.历史洪水重现期的误差对设计洪水的影响.河海大学学报,2002,30(1):79-82.
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