长江三角洲夏季降水异常及气候成因
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摘要
根据长江三角洲地区61个气象站的1961—2007年夏季降水量资料,应用EOF和REOF等统计方法分析了长江三角洲地区夏季降水的时空分布及演变特征,并探讨了夏季降水异常类型的初步成因。结果表明:47a来长江三角洲地区夏季降水有比较明显的年代际变化,1980s开始有明显增加,该地区降水异常可以分为两种类型,分别为一致偏多(少)型和北多(少)南少(多)型,并且通过分析500hPa环流型势、副热带高压和ENSO事件的特征,初步探讨了降水异常的可能成因。
Based on summer rainfall data collected from 61stations in the Yangtze River Delta from 1961 to 2007,the spatial-temporal characteristics of summer (from June to August) precipitation are analyzed by applying the methodologies of EOF and REOF. Results indicate that summer precipitation in the Yangtze River Delta has obvious differences during the recent 47 years,and the summer precipitation has dramatic increase since 1980s. The rainfall has two patterns,one is the type with no difference over the Yangtze River Delta and the other type of the rainfall distribution is characterized by the significant difference in the south and north. By analysing the characteristics of the 500hPa height,the subtropical over West Pacific and ENSO,the cause of precipitation anomalies could possibly be explored.
Based on summer rainfall data collected from 61stations in the Yangtze River Delta from 1961 to 2007,the spatial-temporal characteristics of summer (from June to August) precipitation are analyzed by applying the methodologies of EOF and REOF. Results indicate that summer precipitation in the Yangtze River Delta has obvious differences during the recent 47 years,and the summer precipitation has dramatic increase since 1980s. The rainfall has two patterns,one is the type with no difference over the Yangtze River Delta and the other type of the rainfall distribution is characterized by the significant difference in the south and north. By analysing the characteristics of the 500hPa height,the subtropical over West Pacific and ENSO,the cause of precipitation anomalies could possibly be explored.
引文
[1]马开玉,李北群,曾庆云.长江流域大范围旱涝特征的初步研究.南京大学学报(自然科学版),1993,29(专辑):122-126.
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[3]宋中平,金龙,刘雅芳,等.长江三角洲近百年的温度变化及未来趋势预测研究.南京气象学院学报,1999,22(增刊):547-552.
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[5]谢志清,杜银,曾燕,等.长江三角洲城市带扩展对区域温度变化的影响.地理学报,2007,62(7):717-727.
[6]蔡敏,丁裕国,江志红.我国东部极端降水时空分布及其概率特征.高原气象,2007,26(2):309-318.
[7]谢志清,姜爱军,杜银,等.长江三角洲强降水过程年极值分布特征研究.南京气象学院学报,2005,28(2):267-274.
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[10]陈辉,施能,王永波.长江中下游气候的长期变化及基本态特征.气象科学,2001,21(1):44-53.
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[12]Nan S,Li J.The relationship between the summer precipitation in the Yangtze River valley and the boreal spring Southern Hemi sphere annular mode.Geophys.Res.Lett.,2003,30(24),CLM4:124.
[13]朱艳峰,陈隆勋,宇如聪.中国气候异常变化与ENSO准四年循环的联系分析.热带气象学报,2003,19(4):345-356.
[14]Yu R C,Wang B,Zhou TJ.Tropospheric cooling and summer monsoon weakening trend over East Asia.Geophys.Res.Lett.,31,L22212,doi:10.1029/2004GL021270,2004.
[15]Shi Neng,Zhu Qiangen.An abrupt change in the intensity of East Asia summer monsoon index and its relationship with temperature and precipitation over East China.Int.J.climatol.,1996,17(7):757-764.
[16]徐建军,朱乾根,周铁汉.东亚夏季风与中国夏季降水年际异常的分型研究.南京气象学院学报,1998,21(3):313-320.
[17]孙照渤,张天宇,倪东鸿,等.近45a长江中下游地区夏季降水的区域特征.南京气象学院学报,2007,30(4):530-537.
[18]赵振国.中国夏季旱涝环境场.北京:气象出版社,2000:45.
[2]金龙,缪启龙,周桂香,等.近45年长江三角洲气候变化及主要气象灾害分析.南京气象学院学报,1999,22(4):698-704.
[3]宋中平,金龙,刘雅芳,等.长江三角洲近百年的温度变化及未来趋势预测研究.南京气象学院学报,1999,22(增刊):547-552.
[4]周秀骥.长江三角洲地区近地层大气和生态系统相互关系的研究.北京:气象出版社,2004.
[5]谢志清,杜银,曾燕,等.长江三角洲城市带扩展对区域温度变化的影响.地理学报,2007,62(7):717-727.
[6]蔡敏,丁裕国,江志红.我国东部极端降水时空分布及其概率特征.高原气象,2007,26(2):309-318.
[7]谢志清,姜爱军,杜银,等.长江三角洲强降水过程年极值分布特征研究.南京气象学院学报,2005,28(2):267-274.
[8]吕军,肖卉,张静,等.江苏省夏季降水时空分布演变特征.气象,2006,32(6):48-52.
[9]陶玫,吕军,于波.江苏夏季旱涝环境演变特征分析.气象科学,2008,28(1):85-89.
[10]陈辉,施能,王永波.长江中下游气候的长期变化及基本态特征.气象科学,2001,21(1):44-53.
[11]张琼,吴国雄.长江流域大范围旱涝与南亚高压的关系.气象科学,2001,59(5):569-576.
[12]Nan S,Li J.The relationship between the summer precipitation in the Yangtze River valley and the boreal spring Southern Hemi sphere annular mode.Geophys.Res.Lett.,2003,30(24),CLM4:124.
[13]朱艳峰,陈隆勋,宇如聪.中国气候异常变化与ENSO准四年循环的联系分析.热带气象学报,2003,19(4):345-356.
[14]Yu R C,Wang B,Zhou TJ.Tropospheric cooling and summer monsoon weakening trend over East Asia.Geophys.Res.Lett.,31,L22212,doi:10.1029/2004GL021270,2004.
[15]Shi Neng,Zhu Qiangen.An abrupt change in the intensity of East Asia summer monsoon index and its relationship with temperature and precipitation over East China.Int.J.climatol.,1996,17(7):757-764.
[16]徐建军,朱乾根,周铁汉.东亚夏季风与中国夏季降水年际异常的分型研究.南京气象学院学报,1998,21(3):313-320.
[17]孙照渤,张天宇,倪东鸿,等.近45a长江中下游地区夏季降水的区域特征.南京气象学院学报,2007,30(4):530-537.
[18]赵振国.中国夏季旱涝环境场.北京:气象出版社,2000:45.
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