基于江苏沿海风暴潮风险区划的土地利用防灾规划研究
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摘要
江苏沿海开发潜力巨大,但是随着开发的进行,人民生命财产的暴露性日益增加,因此加强防灾减灾规划势在必行。针对江苏沿海风暴潮的影响因素和产业布局,采用系统聚类法进行了江苏沿海风暴潮风险区划,将江苏沿海岸段划分为7个风险等级。风险等级最高的为西墅-大板跳岸段,风险等级最低的是射阳河口-东凌港口岸段,然后根据岸段风险和规划中的产业布局所形成的暴露性组合成4种岸段类型,并以代价最小、获益最大、充分利用现有资源为基本原则,提出针对各类型的防灾规划方案,最后分别给7个风险等级的岸段选择防灾规划方案,提出建议。
The paper wants to present our analysis of the influential factors of the storm surge on the coastal line areas of Jiangsu Province, including the beach width, slope, sandbeach location, altitude, above-sea level, typhoon and land-use types.Taking the ports and estuaries as basic boundaries,we have established a storm surge risk regionalization model by using the system clustering method. Jiangsu coastal area can be divided into seven risk grades. The first grade, that is, the highest risk grade coastal area— the area from Xishu to Dabantiao,whereas the last, or the lowest grade risk-prone coastal area is that from Sheyang estuary to Dongling port. Starting from the pointof viewof sacrifice the leastbutgaining the most,or as it says, to get the maximum benefit and make full use of the current resources, the paper has put forward four strategies to prevent the storm surge disasters. The first strategy is to use the high-risk and high-exposed area,where it is possible to prevent all likely disasters by preparing perfect land use planning, including the prevent-disaster space, emergency road, material reserves, information network, and so on. The second strategy is to use the high-risk and low-exposed area cleverly. Since in these areas there is much land but few residents, early warning system should be strengthened with well-organized information network with the system constantly being perfected. The third strategy is to use low-risk and high-exposed area properly. Since such areas are densely populated with not enough farm land, it is possible to build multifunctional emergency roads andways to avoid disasters. The last strategy is suitable for the areas with low-risk and low-exposed to the storm hitting. In these areas, it is possible to give perfect emergency response in fighting against the unexpected disasters. According to the four strategies, the first strategy should be applied for the Xishu port-Dabantiao port and Dayang port-Lianxing port. The second one can be adopted by Dongling port-Dangyang port and Zhongshan Estuary-Sheyang Estuary. While the third strategy is suitable forSheyang Estuary-Dongling port, the lastone isfeasible for Xiuzhen estuary-Xishu and Dabantiao-Zhongshan Estuary.
The paper wants to present our analysis of the influential factors of the storm surge on the coastal line areas of Jiangsu Province, including the beach width, slope, sandbeach location, altitude, above-sea level, typhoon and land-use types.Taking the ports and estuaries as basic boundaries,we have established a storm surge risk regionalization model by using the system clustering method. Jiangsu coastal area can be divided into seven risk grades. The first grade, that is, the highest risk grade coastal area— the area from Xishu to Dabantiao,whereas the last, or the lowest grade risk-prone coastal area is that from Sheyang estuary to Dongling port. Starting from the pointof viewof sacrifice the leastbutgaining the most,or as it says, to get the maximum benefit and make full use of the current resources, the paper has put forward four strategies to prevent the storm surge disasters. The first strategy is to use the high-risk and high-exposed area,where it is possible to prevent all likely disasters by preparing perfect land use planning, including the prevent-disaster space, emergency road, material reserves, information network, and so on. The second strategy is to use the high-risk and low-exposed area cleverly. Since in these areas there is much land but few residents, early warning system should be strengthened with well-organized information network with the system constantly being perfected. The third strategy is to use low-risk and high-exposed area properly. Since such areas are densely populated with not enough farm land, it is possible to build multifunctional emergency roads andways to avoid disasters. The last strategy is suitable for the areas with low-risk and low-exposed to the storm hitting. In these areas, it is possible to give perfect emergency response in fighting against the unexpected disasters. According to the four strategies, the first strategy should be applied for the Xishu port-Dabantiao port and Dayang port-Lianxing port. The second one can be adopted by Dongling port-Dangyang port and Zhongshan Estuary-Sheyang Estuary. While the third strategy is suitable forSheyang Estuary-Dongling port, the lastone isfeasible for Xiuzhen estuary-Xishu and Dabantiao-Zhongshan Estuary.
引文
[1]DAIYanan(戴亚男),ZHANG Ying(张鹰).Marine disasters and strategy for damage mitigation in coastal zone of Jiangsu[J].Ecology and Environment(生态环境),2006,15(6):1417-1420.
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[3]Suzhou Statistical Bureau(苏州统计局).Study on the strategy for leap-forward development on Jiangsu coatal(江苏沿海跨越式发展战略研究)[EB/OL].[2012-05-11].http://www.sztjj.gov.cn/news/2004/3/12/tjj/tjj-01-21-08-520.shtml.
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[5]LU Xuecui(卢雪翠),WANG Wei(王炜),QUAN Xungang(权循刚).Application of weights-of-evidence in zonation of flood/waterlogging disaster risk in Tianjin[J].Journal ofSafety and Environment(安全与环境学报),2010,10(6):127-132.
[6]ZHAO Qingliang(赵庆良),XU Shiyuan(许世远),WANG Jun(王军),et al.A review of risk assessment of storm surge on coastal cities[J].Progress in Geography(地理科学进展),2007,26(5):32-40.
[7]BESIO M.Dalla carta del rischio al piano integrato della sostenibilita del territorio[J].Urbanistica,2001(117):5-7.
[8]LI Tianqi(李天琪),ZHAO Zhendong(赵振东),YUShizhou(余世舟).On the emergency damage assessment of the urban hazardous disasters caused by accidental explosion[J].Journal ofSafety and Environment(安全与环境学报),2012,12(1):260-264.
[9]CUI Lewen(崔乐文).Research on the risk assessmentof secondary airraid disastersin chemical storage tank area[J].Journal ofChina Safety Science(中国安全科学学报),2009,19(9):102-108.
[10]LULiyun(陆丽云),CHEN Jun(陈君),ZHANG Renshun(张忍顺).Disastersof storm tide along the coast in Jiangsu and the countermeasures[J].Journal ofCatastrophology(灾害学),2002,17(1):26-31.
[11]LIUQun(刘群),YIN Yong(殷勇).The tidal flat geomorphology of Jiangsu coast area and ways of resources development and exploitation[J].Henan Science(河南科学),2010,28(11):1482-1490.
[12]FENG Shizha(冯士榨).Storm surge introduction(风暴潮导论)[M].Beijing:Science Press,1982.
[13]ZHANG Xin(张新),JIANG Bing(蒋冰),LIU Jian(刘健),et al.Spatiotemporal process presentation technology for storm surge prediction information[J].Journal ofNatural Disasters(自然灾害学报),2010,19(2):15-19.
[14]BIJLSMA L,BHLER C N,KLEIN R J T,et al.Coastal zones and small islands.IPCC WGⅡ,Climate change 1995:impacts,adaptations and mitigation ofclimate change:science-technical analysis[R].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1996:289-324.
[15]XIANG Ying(项瑛),XIAOHui(肖卉),TAOMei(陶玫).The disaster prevention planning ofstorm surge in Qingdao City(青岛市城市防风暴潮预案)[Z].Qingdao:Qingdao People's Government Office,2008.
[16]XIANG Lihui(项立辉),LIU Jian(刘健),KONG Xianghuai(孔祥淮),et al.Discussion on development and utilization of topographic and geomorphologic resources in Jiangsu coastal areas[J].Marine Geology Letters(海洋地质动态),2010,26(9):39-42.
[17]Jiangsu Development and Reformation Committee(江苏省发改委),Jiangsu Coastal Management Officer(江苏省沿海办).The shoal development and use planning outline in Jiangsu coastal(江苏沿海滩涂围垦开发利用规划纲要)[R].Nanjing:Jiangsu People's Government,2008.
[2]ZHAO Hongyan(赵红艳),CHEN Ye(陈晔).Study on the marine disasters and damage mitigation measures in the coastal areas of Jiangsu Province[J].Journal ofAnhui Agriculture Science(安徽农业科学),2009,37(4):1686-1688.
[3]Suzhou Statistical Bureau(苏州统计局).Study on the strategy for leap-forward development on Jiangsu coatal(江苏沿海跨越式发展战略研究)[EB/OL].[2012-05-11].http://www.sztjj.gov.cn/news/2004/3/12/tjj/tjj-01-21-08-520.shtml.
[4]State Oceanic Administration of People's Republic of China(中国国家海洋局).China ocean disaster bulletin(中国海洋灾害公报)[EB/OL].[2012-05-11].http://www.mlr.gov.cn/zwgk/tjxx/201104/t20110426-846266.htm.
[5]LU Xuecui(卢雪翠),WANG Wei(王炜),QUAN Xungang(权循刚).Application of weights-of-evidence in zonation of flood/waterlogging disaster risk in Tianjin[J].Journal ofSafety and Environment(安全与环境学报),2010,10(6):127-132.
[6]ZHAO Qingliang(赵庆良),XU Shiyuan(许世远),WANG Jun(王军),et al.A review of risk assessment of storm surge on coastal cities[J].Progress in Geography(地理科学进展),2007,26(5):32-40.
[7]BESIO M.Dalla carta del rischio al piano integrato della sostenibilita del territorio[J].Urbanistica,2001(117):5-7.
[8]LI Tianqi(李天琪),ZHAO Zhendong(赵振东),YUShizhou(余世舟).On the emergency damage assessment of the urban hazardous disasters caused by accidental explosion[J].Journal ofSafety and Environment(安全与环境学报),2012,12(1):260-264.
[9]CUI Lewen(崔乐文).Research on the risk assessmentof secondary airraid disastersin chemical storage tank area[J].Journal ofChina Safety Science(中国安全科学学报),2009,19(9):102-108.
[10]LULiyun(陆丽云),CHEN Jun(陈君),ZHANG Renshun(张忍顺).Disastersof storm tide along the coast in Jiangsu and the countermeasures[J].Journal ofCatastrophology(灾害学),2002,17(1):26-31.
[11]LIUQun(刘群),YIN Yong(殷勇).The tidal flat geomorphology of Jiangsu coast area and ways of resources development and exploitation[J].Henan Science(河南科学),2010,28(11):1482-1490.
[12]FENG Shizha(冯士榨).Storm surge introduction(风暴潮导论)[M].Beijing:Science Press,1982.
[13]ZHANG Xin(张新),JIANG Bing(蒋冰),LIU Jian(刘健),et al.Spatiotemporal process presentation technology for storm surge prediction information[J].Journal ofNatural Disasters(自然灾害学报),2010,19(2):15-19.
[14]BIJLSMA L,BHLER C N,KLEIN R J T,et al.Coastal zones and small islands.IPCC WGⅡ,Climate change 1995:impacts,adaptations and mitigation ofclimate change:science-technical analysis[R].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1996:289-324.
[15]XIANG Ying(项瑛),XIAOHui(肖卉),TAOMei(陶玫).The disaster prevention planning ofstorm surge in Qingdao City(青岛市城市防风暴潮预案)[Z].Qingdao:Qingdao People's Government Office,2008.
[16]XIANG Lihui(项立辉),LIU Jian(刘健),KONG Xianghuai(孔祥淮),et al.Discussion on development and utilization of topographic and geomorphologic resources in Jiangsu coastal areas[J].Marine Geology Letters(海洋地质动态),2010,26(9):39-42.
[17]Jiangsu Development and Reformation Committee(江苏省发改委),Jiangsu Coastal Management Officer(江苏省沿海办).The shoal development and use planning outline in Jiangsu coastal(江苏沿海滩涂围垦开发利用规划纲要)[R].Nanjing:Jiangsu People's Government,2008.
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