气温及降水变化对江苏省典型农业区冬小麦、水稻生育期的影响
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摘要
基于江苏省徐州、昆山、宜兴三地1992-2005年气温、降水资料,以及1992-2004年徐州、昆山两地冬小麦生育期和1993-2005年徐州、宜兴两地水稻生育期数据,分析了气温、降水的变异与冬小麦、水稻生育期的关系。结果表明:1992-2004年,江苏徐州、昆山两地冬小麦全生育期天数随气温上升而逐渐减少,冬小麦全生育期天数与生育期内总降水量的变异无显著相关性。1993-2005年,随着月平均温度升高,徐州、昆山两地冬小麦拔节、孕穗、开花期提前,而乳熟期随此阶段平均温度的升高而推迟。与冬小麦不同,徐州、宜兴两地水稻生育期天数与生育期内平均温度和总降水量无显著相关关系。并且,随着温度升高,徐州、宜兴两地拔节、孕穗、抽穗、乳熟期也无显著变化。这表明水、旱两种作物对气温的变化呈现出明显不同的变异规律,气温的年际间变化对冬小麦生育期的影响相对更大。
In order to investigate the impacts of air temperature and precipitation on the growth stages of winter wheat and rice,the climate and crop phenophase datasets in typical agricultural zones of Jiangsu province were analyzed.The climate datasets are composed of the air temperature and precipitation data from 1992 to 2005 in Xuzhou,Kunshan and Yixing.The phenophase datasets are composed of the recorded main growth stages of winter wheat in Xuzhou and Kunshan from 1992 to 2004 and rice in Xuzhou and Yixing from 1993 to 2005.The results indicated that the whole winter wheat growth period shortened by the increase in mean air temperature.There was no significant corelation between the winter wheat growth period and precipitation.With the increase in mean air temperature,the stages of stem elongation,booting and flowering of winter wheat tended to be earlier,while the stage of milking maturity tended to be later.No significant relationship between winter wheat growth stages and precipitation were observed.Further investigations indicated that there was no significant relationship between the whole rice growth period and mean air temperature or precipitation.The stages of stem elongation,booting,heading and maturing of rice showed no significant change with the increase in mean air temperature.These results indicated that the variations in air temperature significantly affected the growth stages of winter wheat rather than that of rice.
In order to investigate the impacts of air temperature and precipitation on the growth stages of winter wheat and rice,the climate and crop phenophase datasets in typical agricultural zones of Jiangsu province were analyzed.The climate datasets are composed of the air temperature and precipitation data from 1992 to 2005 in Xuzhou,Kunshan and Yixing.The phenophase datasets are composed of the recorded main growth stages of winter wheat in Xuzhou and Kunshan from 1992 to 2004 and rice in Xuzhou and Yixing from 1993 to 2005.The results indicated that the whole winter wheat growth period shortened by the increase in mean air temperature.There was no significant corelation between the winter wheat growth period and precipitation.With the increase in mean air temperature,the stages of stem elongation,booting and flowering of winter wheat tended to be earlier,while the stage of milking maturity tended to be later.No significant relationship between winter wheat growth stages and precipitation were observed.Further investigations indicated that there was no significant relationship between the whole rice growth period and mean air temperature or precipitation.The stages of stem elongation,booting,heading and maturing of rice showed no significant change with the increase in mean air temperature.These results indicated that the variations in air temperature significantly affected the growth stages of winter wheat rather than that of rice.
引文
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[14]薛昌颖,刘荣花,吴骞.气候变暖对信阳地区水稻生育期的影响[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(3):353-357.
[2]张宇,王石立,王馥棠.气候变化对我国冬小麦发育及产量可能影响的模拟研究[J].应用气象学报,2000,11(3):264-270.
[3]Daniel R,Chavas R,César I,et al.Long term climate changeimpacts on agricultural productivity in eastern China[J].Agri-cultural and Forest Meteorology,2009,149:1118-1128.
[4]居辉,熊伟,许吟隆,等.气候变化对我国小麦产量的影响[J].作物学报,2005,31(10):1340-1343.
[5]张明捷,王运行,赵桂芳,等.濮阳冬小麦生育期气候变化及其对小麦产量的影响[J].中国农业气象,2009,30(2):223-229.
[6]葛道阔,金之庆,石春林,等.气候变化对中国南方水稻生产的阶段性影响及适应性对策[J].江苏农业学报,2002,18(1):1-8.
[7]熊伟,陶福禄,许吟隆,等.气候变化情景下我国水稻产量变化模拟[J].中国农业气象,2001,22(3):1-5.
[8]车少静,智利辉,冯立辉.气候变暖对石家庄冬小麦主要生育期的影响及对策[J].中国农业气象,2005,26(3):180-183.
[9]余卫东,赵国强,陈怀亮.气候变化对河南省主要农作物生育期的影响[J].中国农业气象,2007,28(1):9-12.
[10]Tao F L,Yokozawa M,Xu Y L,et al.Climate change andtrends in phenology and yields of field crops in China[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2006,138:82-92.
[11]冯明,王中柱,王保家.湖北省气温及水稻生育期内有效积温变化的分析[J].华中农业大学学报,1998,17(6):509-605.
[12]王萍,李廷全,闫平,等.黑龙江省近35年气候变化对粳稻发育期及产量的影响[J].中国农业气象,2008,29(3):268-271.
[13]丁丽佳,谢松元.气候变暖对潮州水稻主要生育期的影响及对策[J].中国农业气象,2009,30(增1):97-102.
[14]薛昌颖,刘荣花,吴骞.气候变暖对信阳地区水稻生育期的影响[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(3):353-357.
目录