湖南电线覆冰厚度估算模型研究
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摘要
基于湖南省97个地面气象观测站(其中28个站有电线积冰观测业务)自建站至2008年的日气象观测资料,雪峰山、东山峰高山站的部分电线积冰观测资料,NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及地理信息资料,开展了气象要素、温度垂直结构、地理信息等环境因子对电线覆冰厚度的影响分析;利用逐步回归方法建立了电线覆冰厚度与环境因子的回归模型;在对回归模型进行统计检验的基础上,开展了自建模型与其他两种相关模型的比对分析。检验及比对结果表明,自建模型具有可用性。
Based on the daily meteorological data from the 97 observation stations(28 with wire icing observation) in Hunan province from their establishment to 2008,part of the wire icing data from the stations at Xuefeng and Dongshan mountain,the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and geographic information data,the influence of such environmental factors as meteorological elements,vertical structure of temperature and the geographic information on the thickness of wire icing was analyzed.By using the stepwise regression method,a regression model between wire icing thickness and environmental factors was established.Based on the statistical testing of the regression model,comparisons between this model and other two related models were carried out.Results show that the new model is valid.
Based on the daily meteorological data from the 97 observation stations(28 with wire icing observation) in Hunan province from their establishment to 2008,part of the wire icing data from the stations at Xuefeng and Dongshan mountain,the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and geographic information data,the influence of such environmental factors as meteorological elements,vertical structure of temperature and the geographic information on the thickness of wire icing was analyzed.By using the stepwise regression method,a regression model between wire icing thickness and environmental factors was established.Based on the statistical testing of the regression model,comparisons between this model and other two related models were carried out.Results show that the new model is valid.
引文
[1]《湖南省气象志》编纂委员会.湖南省气象志[M].北京:气象出版社,2008.
[2]Imai I.Studies on ice accretion[J].Researches on Snow and Ice,1953,3(1):35-44.
[3]Lenhard R W.An indirect method for estimating the weight ofglaze on wires[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,1955,36(3):1-5.
[4]Makkonen L.Modeling power line icing in freezing precipitation[C]//7th Internaitional Workshop on Atmospheric Icing ofStructures.Montreal,1996.
[5]Mccomber P,Govoni J W.An analysis of selected ice accretionmeasurements on a wire at Mount Washington[C]//Proceedingsof the Forty-second Annual Eastern Snow Conference.Montreal,1985.
[6]Mckay G A,Thompson H A.Estimating the hazard of ice accre-tion in Canada from climatological data[J].J Appl Meteor,1969(8):927-935.
[7]刘和云,周迪,付俊萍,等.电线雨淞覆冰预测简单模型的研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2001,21(4):44-47.
[8]谭冠日.电线积冰若干小气候特征的探讨[J].气象学报,1982,40(1):13-23.
[9]魏其巍.电线覆冰机理分析及在工程设计中的应用[J].电力建设,2007,28(3):26-28.
[10]罗桂湘,陈斌,覃峥嵘.资源县电线覆冰的气象因素探析[J].气象研究与应用,2008,29(3):39-42.
[11]鲁俊,吴必文,卢燕宇.安徽省电线积冰的特征及气象条件分析[J].安徽农业科学,2008,36(24):10570-10572;10592.
[12]张勇,寿绍文,王咏青,等.山东半岛一次强降雪过程的中尺度特征[J].南京气象学院学报,2008,31(1):51-60.
[13]崔晶,张丰启,钱永甫,等.2005年12月威海连续性暴雪的气候背景[J].南京气象学院学报,2008,31(6):845-851.
[14]吴素良,蔡新玲,何晓嫒,等.陕西省电线积冰特征[J].应用气象学报,2009,20(2):247-251.
[15]麻巨慧,王盘兴,李丽平,等.“0801南方雪灾”与同期蒙古高压中期活动的关系[J].大气科学学报,2009,32(5):652-660.
[16]中国气象局.地面气象观测规范[M].北京:气象出版社,2003.
[17]Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.The NCEP/NCAR40year reanalysis project[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,1996,77(3):437-471.
[18]西南电力设计院.DL/T5158-2002电力工程气象勘测技术规程[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2002.
[19]贵州省电力工业局,贵州省气象科研所.覆冰文集[C].1992:15-17.
[2]Imai I.Studies on ice accretion[J].Researches on Snow and Ice,1953,3(1):35-44.
[3]Lenhard R W.An indirect method for estimating the weight ofglaze on wires[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,1955,36(3):1-5.
[4]Makkonen L.Modeling power line icing in freezing precipitation[C]//7th Internaitional Workshop on Atmospheric Icing ofStructures.Montreal,1996.
[5]Mccomber P,Govoni J W.An analysis of selected ice accretionmeasurements on a wire at Mount Washington[C]//Proceedingsof the Forty-second Annual Eastern Snow Conference.Montreal,1985.
[6]Mckay G A,Thompson H A.Estimating the hazard of ice accre-tion in Canada from climatological data[J].J Appl Meteor,1969(8):927-935.
[7]刘和云,周迪,付俊萍,等.电线雨淞覆冰预测简单模型的研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2001,21(4):44-47.
[8]谭冠日.电线积冰若干小气候特征的探讨[J].气象学报,1982,40(1):13-23.
[9]魏其巍.电线覆冰机理分析及在工程设计中的应用[J].电力建设,2007,28(3):26-28.
[10]罗桂湘,陈斌,覃峥嵘.资源县电线覆冰的气象因素探析[J].气象研究与应用,2008,29(3):39-42.
[11]鲁俊,吴必文,卢燕宇.安徽省电线积冰的特征及气象条件分析[J].安徽农业科学,2008,36(24):10570-10572;10592.
[12]张勇,寿绍文,王咏青,等.山东半岛一次强降雪过程的中尺度特征[J].南京气象学院学报,2008,31(1):51-60.
[13]崔晶,张丰启,钱永甫,等.2005年12月威海连续性暴雪的气候背景[J].南京气象学院学报,2008,31(6):845-851.
[14]吴素良,蔡新玲,何晓嫒,等.陕西省电线积冰特征[J].应用气象学报,2009,20(2):247-251.
[15]麻巨慧,王盘兴,李丽平,等.“0801南方雪灾”与同期蒙古高压中期活动的关系[J].大气科学学报,2009,32(5):652-660.
[16]中国气象局.地面气象观测规范[M].北京:气象出版社,2003.
[17]Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.The NCEP/NCAR40year reanalysis project[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,1996,77(3):437-471.
[18]西南电力设计院.DL/T5158-2002电力工程气象勘测技术规程[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2002.
[19]贵州省电力工业局,贵州省气象科研所.覆冰文集[C].1992:15-17.
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