湖北省不同资料反演大气可降水量的误差分析
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摘要
利用常规探空、秒级原始探空、GPS/MET、微波辐射计、GFS再分析资料以及区域中尺度WRF模式的预报场资料计算整层可降水量,对多种资料计算的整层可降水量进行误差特征和原因分析,结果表明:秒级探空和常规探空计算的整层可降水量基本一致。GPS/MET、微波辐射计、GFS以及WRF计算的整层可降水量与常规(秒级)探空的相关系数分别为0.94、0.92、0.93、0.80,有降水时GPS/MET和微波辐射计与常规探空的相关系数分别下降到0.85和0.81,但有降水时GPS/MET误差分布较集中,而有降水时微波辐射计误差显著增大,主要由于1~2 km处水汽密度误差异常增大。除微波辐射计和GFS宜昌站计算的整层可降水量为相对常规探空偏高,其他资料均为偏低,GPS/MET宜昌和恩施站平均偏低3 mm,GFS武汉和恩施站分别偏低1和7 mm,WRF恩施平均偏低2 mm,WRF武汉和宜昌平均偏低6~8 mm。GFS恩施站可降水量偏低是由于GFS资料中恩施地面气压比实际偏低,但其露点温度整层均比常规探空偏高。除GFS恩施站外,GFS武汉、GFS宜昌和WRF 3站的露点温度相对常规探空资料露点温度均表现为:850 hPa以下偏低,850 hPa以上偏高。WRF 12 h预报场的整层可降水量与常规探空整层可降水量的相关性和误差均优于24 h预报场。
Using the sounding observation data(SO),raw sounding observation data(RSO),GPS/MET data,microwave radiometer data(MWR),GFS reanalyzed data and the mesoscale area-limited model WRF data,the precipitable water vapor(PWV) was estimated.Through the error analysis of different data,it is found that the SO PWV and RSO PWV are the same basically.The correlation coefficient of the GPS/MET PWV,the MWR PWV,the GPS PWV,the WRF PWV and the SO PWV are 0.94,0.92,0.93,0.80,respectively.The correlation coefficients of the GPS/MET PWV,the MWR PWV and the SO PWV reduce to 0.85 and 0.81 seperately when raining,and the error distribution of the GPS/MET PWV is concentrated,while the error distribution of the MWR PWV increases significantly,because the water vapor density error increases abnormally in the part 1- 2 km.The PWV is generally low,except for the MWR PWV and the GPS/MET PWV at Yichang.The GPS/MET PWV is averagely 3 mm lower than the SO PWV at Yichang and Enshi,the GFS PWV at Wuhan and Enshi is respectively 1 mm and 7 mm,the WRF PWV at Enshi is averagely 2 mm and 6- 8 mm at Wuhan and Yichang.The surface pressure of GFS is lower than the observation at Enshi is the reason for the GFS PWV errors,but the dew-point temperature of GFS is higher than SO.The dew-point temperature analysis shows that the GFS at Wuhan,the GFS at Yichang,and WRF at three stations are lower below 850 hPa and higher above 850 hPa than SO,except for the GFS at Enshi.The correlation coefficient and the error distribution of the WRF PWV and the SO PWV analysis show that the 12 h forecasting is better than 24 h.
Using the sounding observation data(SO),raw sounding observation data(RSO),GPS/MET data,microwave radiometer data(MWR),GFS reanalyzed data and the mesoscale area-limited model WRF data,the precipitable water vapor(PWV) was estimated.Through the error analysis of different data,it is found that the SO PWV and RSO PWV are the same basically.The correlation coefficient of the GPS/MET PWV,the MWR PWV,the GPS PWV,the WRF PWV and the SO PWV are 0.94,0.92,0.93,0.80,respectively.The correlation coefficients of the GPS/MET PWV,the MWR PWV and the SO PWV reduce to 0.85 and 0.81 seperately when raining,and the error distribution of the GPS/MET PWV is concentrated,while the error distribution of the MWR PWV increases significantly,because the water vapor density error increases abnormally in the part 1- 2 km.The PWV is generally low,except for the MWR PWV and the GPS/MET PWV at Yichang.The GPS/MET PWV is averagely 3 mm lower than the SO PWV at Yichang and Enshi,the GFS PWV at Wuhan and Enshi is respectively 1 mm and 7 mm,the WRF PWV at Enshi is averagely 2 mm and 6- 8 mm at Wuhan and Yichang.The surface pressure of GFS is lower than the observation at Enshi is the reason for the GFS PWV errors,but the dew-point temperature of GFS is higher than SO.The dew-point temperature analysis shows that the GFS at Wuhan,the GFS at Yichang,and WRF at three stations are lower below 850 hPa and higher above 850 hPa than SO,except for the GFS at Enshi.The correlation coefficient and the error distribution of the WRF PWV and the SO PWV analysis show that the 12 h forecasting is better than 24 h.
引文
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权维俊,陈洪滨,肖稳安.2004.MODIS与NCEP大气可降水量资料的比较分析.南京气象学院学报,27(2):169-1 76.
孙军,湛芸,杨舒楠,等.2012.北京721特大暴雨极端性分析及思考(二)极端性降水成因初探及思考.气象,38(10):1267-1277.
唐仁茂,李德俊,向玉春,等.2012.地基微波辐射计对咸宁一次冰雹天气过程的监测分析.气象学报,70(4):806-813.
王小亚,朱文耀,严豪健,等.1999.地面GPS探测大气可降水量的初步结果.大气科学,23(5):605-612.
向玉春,陈正洪,徐桂荣,等.2009.大气可降水量推算方法结果的比较分析.气象,35(11):48-54.
徐桂荣,孙振添,李武阶,等.2010.地基微波辐射计与GPS无线电探空和GPS/MET的观测对比分析.暴雨灾害,29(4):315-321.
徐桂荣,万蓉,李武阶,等.2009.地基GPS反演大气可降水量方法的改进.暴雨灾害,28(3):203-209.
颜晓露,郑向东,李蔚,等.2012.两种探空仪观测湿度垂直分布及其应用比较.应用气象学报,23(4):433-440.
俞小鼎.2012.2012年7月21日北京特大暴雨成因分析.气象,38(11):1313-1329.
袁招洪,丁金才,陈永林.2004.中尺度数值预报模式预报水汽与GFS观测的比较研究.大气科学,28(3):433-440.
张洁,刘敏,尹球,等.2011.FY2E反演大气可降水量与地基GPS反演可降水量的比较.第28届中国气象学会年会——S2风云卫星定量应用与数值.
张晶,顾松山,楚志刚,等.2014.LAPS同化GPS/PWV资料在暴雨预报中的应用研究.气象,40(1):76-85.
赵洋洋,张庆红,杜宇,等.2013.北京721特大暴雨环流形势极端性客观分析.气象学报,71(5):817-824.
陈小雷,景华,仝美然,等.2009.地基GPS遥测大气可降水量应用精度和范围.气象科技,37(1):85-88.
谌芸,孙军,徐堵,等.2012.北京721特大暴雨极端性分析及思考(一)观测分析及思考.气象,38(10):1255-1266.
丁海燕,李青春,郑祚芳,等.2012.利用北京GPS监测网分析夏季暴雨的水汽特征.应用气象学报,23(1):47 58.
方翀,毛冬艳,张小雯,等.2012.2012年7月21日北京地区特大暴雨中尺度对流条件和特征初步分析.气象,38(10):1278-1287.
黄治勇,徐桂荣,王晓芳,等.2013.地基微波辐射资料在短时暴雨潜势预报中的应用.应用气象学报,24(5):576-584.
刘健文,郭虎,李耀东,等.2007.天气分析预报物理量计算基础.北京:气象出版社,27-28.
权维俊,陈洪滨,肖稳安.2004.MODIS与NCEP大气可降水量资料的比较分析.南京气象学院学报,27(2):169-1 76.
孙军,湛芸,杨舒楠,等.2012.北京721特大暴雨极端性分析及思考(二)极端性降水成因初探及思考.气象,38(10):1267-1277.
唐仁茂,李德俊,向玉春,等.2012.地基微波辐射计对咸宁一次冰雹天气过程的监测分析.气象学报,70(4):806-813.
王小亚,朱文耀,严豪健,等.1999.地面GPS探测大气可降水量的初步结果.大气科学,23(5):605-612.
向玉春,陈正洪,徐桂荣,等.2009.大气可降水量推算方法结果的比较分析.气象,35(11):48-54.
徐桂荣,孙振添,李武阶,等.2010.地基微波辐射计与GPS无线电探空和GPS/MET的观测对比分析.暴雨灾害,29(4):315-321.
徐桂荣,万蓉,李武阶,等.2009.地基GPS反演大气可降水量方法的改进.暴雨灾害,28(3):203-209.
颜晓露,郑向东,李蔚,等.2012.两种探空仪观测湿度垂直分布及其应用比较.应用气象学报,23(4):433-440.
俞小鼎.2012.2012年7月21日北京特大暴雨成因分析.气象,38(11):1313-1329.
袁招洪,丁金才,陈永林.2004.中尺度数值预报模式预报水汽与GFS观测的比较研究.大气科学,28(3):433-440.
张洁,刘敏,尹球,等.2011.FY2E反演大气可降水量与地基GPS反演可降水量的比较.第28届中国气象学会年会——S2风云卫星定量应用与数值.
张晶,顾松山,楚志刚,等.2014.LAPS同化GPS/PWV资料在暴雨预报中的应用研究.气象,40(1):76-85.
赵洋洋,张庆红,杜宇,等.2013.北京721特大暴雨环流形势极端性客观分析.气象学报,71(5):817-824.
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