基于海温和环流特征量的江苏省小麦适播期预测
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摘要
基于江苏省60个气象台站1961—2010年冬小麦冬前生长期间的气温资料,利用曼-肯德尔法(Mann-Kendall method)分析发现,小麦冬前生长期间日均气温及有效积温在全球气候变暖背景下均有明显的增暖趋势。同时根据江苏省各地区冬小麦有记录以来的农业气象资料分析可得,播期与冬前总积温、有效积温具有极显著的相关关系,尤以有效积温更为显著,均通过了0.001显著水平检验,故可利用冬前有效积温确定冬小麦适播期。在此基础上,根据海气相互作用原理以及500 hPa大气环流特征量能表征天气形势和控制天气条件的这一特性,利用最优化因子相关技术对海温及环流特征量进行普查,从中挑选一批与冬前有效积温相关显著、稳定性强、因子相互独立、可靠的海温和环流特征量作为长期预报因子,建立冬前有效积温的海温模型和环流模型,其拟合效果和试报效果甚佳,可投入业务应用,提前1~2月预测冬前有效积温,从而确定冬小麦适播期。
Based on the analysis of temperature data from 60 meteorological stations in Jiangsu Province during the period 1961—2010 by using the Mann-Kendall method,it was found out that both daily mean temperature and effective accumulative temperature during the growing period of winter wheat prior to winter have significant increasing trends in parallel with global warming.The statistical analysis on the agro -meteorological records in different regions has shown that the sowing date of winter wheat is significantly correlated with the total and effective accumulative temperatures prior to the winter.The correlation between sowing date and effective accumulative temperature has passed the test at the 0.001 significance level. According to coupling between the atmosphere and oceans and the fact that the atmospheric circulation characteristics(ACC) of 500 hPa can indicate the weather patterns and control the weather conditions,a batch of effective sea surface temperature(SST) and ACC predictors of accumulative temperature prior to the winter were selected using the optimum correlation technique.These SST and ACC predictors are independent each other and have stable and significant correlations with the accumulative temperature.Then the models for predicting the accumulative temperature prior to the winter were developed.Calibrations and validations show that these developed models are able to predict the accumulative temperature prior to the winter with satisfied accuracy.They can be routinely operated to predict the accumulative temperature prior to the winter and to determine the optimum sowing date of winter wheat one to two months in advance.
Based on the analysis of temperature data from 60 meteorological stations in Jiangsu Province during the period 1961—2010 by using the Mann-Kendall method,it was found out that both daily mean temperature and effective accumulative temperature during the growing period of winter wheat prior to winter have significant increasing trends in parallel with global warming.The statistical analysis on the agro -meteorological records in different regions has shown that the sowing date of winter wheat is significantly correlated with the total and effective accumulative temperatures prior to the winter.The correlation between sowing date and effective accumulative temperature has passed the test at the 0.001 significance level. According to coupling between the atmosphere and oceans and the fact that the atmospheric circulation characteristics(ACC) of 500 hPa can indicate the weather patterns and control the weather conditions,a batch of effective sea surface temperature(SST) and ACC predictors of accumulative temperature prior to the winter were selected using the optimum correlation technique.These SST and ACC predictors are independent each other and have stable and significant correlations with the accumulative temperature.Then the models for predicting the accumulative temperature prior to the winter were developed.Calibrations and validations show that these developed models are able to predict the accumulative temperature prior to the winter with satisfied accuracy.They can be routinely operated to predict the accumulative temperature prior to the winter and to determine the optimum sowing date of winter wheat one to two months in advance.
引文
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[13]杨晓光,刘志娟,陈阜.全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响1.气候变暖对中国种植制度北界和粮食产量可能影响的分析[J].中国农业科学,2010,43(2):329-336.
[14]张佩,高苹,刘彦丽.江苏省冬小麦播种期对气候要素变化的响应[J].气象科学,2011,31(6):763-769.
[15]窦松杰,窦胜勇.利用积温确定最佳播期的方法探索[J].大豆科技,2009,(5):44-45.
[1 6]白洪立,孟淑华,王立功,等.积温变迁对冬小麦夏玉米一年两熟播期的影响[J].作物杂志,2009,(3):55-58.
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[21]周浩,程炳岩,罗孳孳.重庆春播期间降水特征及其与北太平洋海温的关系[J].气象,2011,37(9):1134-1139.
[22]章基嘉,葛玲.中长期天气预报基础[M].北京:气象出版社, 1983:108-174.
[23]梁必骐.天气学[M].北京:气象出版社,1980:281-323.
[24]刘梅,高苹,王静苒,等.江苏夏季逐月高温日数与西太平洋海温场相关分析及预测模型建立[J].气象,2011,37(12):1553- 1559.
[25]汪靖,吕江津.天津地区雨季降水异常年大气环流特征分析[J].气象,2011,37(8):950-955.
[26]邓伟涛,孙照渤,曾刚,等.中国东部夏季降水型的年代际变化及其与北太平洋海温的关系[J].大气科学,2009,33(4): 835-846.
[27]钱维宏,朱江,王永光,等.江淮梅雨和赤道太平洋区域海温变化的关系[J].科学通报,2009,54(1):79-84.
[28]汤志成,高苹.作物产量预报系统[J].中国农业气象,1996,17 (2):49-42.
[29]贾小龙,陈丽娟,龚振淞,等.2010年海洋和大气环流异常及对中国气候的影响[J].气象,2011,37(4):446-4 53.
[30]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.
[31]朱盛明,曲学实.数值预报产品统计解释技术的进展[M].北京:气象出版社,1988:112-116.
[32]汤志成,孙涵.最优化因子处理及加权多重回归模型[J].气象学报,1992,50(4):514-517.
[33]张启锐.实用回归分析[M].北京:地质出版社,1988:196- 203.
[34]高苹,武金岗,杨荣明,等.江苏省稻纵卷叶螟迁入期虫情指标与西太平洋海温的遥相关及其长期预报模型的研究[J].应用生态学报,2008,19(8):2056-2066.
[2]黄毓华,高苹,徐萌,等.气候变暖对江苏省冬麦苗期的影响及对策的研究[J].气象,1999,26(9):43-46.
[3]朱云集,崔金梅,郭天财.等.河南省小麦生产发展中几个关键技术问题的商榷[J].河南农业科学,2011,40(8):54-57.
[4]温红霞,马飞,冯伟森,等.播期对不同专用型冬小麦灌浆特性及产量的影响[J].江苏农业科学.2010,(5):144-145.
[5]李存东,曹卫星,罗卫红,等.小麦叶片出生与穗分化关系的研究[J].中国农业科学,2000,33(1):33-38.
[6]荣云鹏,朱保美,韩贵香,等.气温变化对鲁西北冬小麦最佳适播期的影响[J].气象,2007,33(10):110-113.
[7]IPCC.Climate Change 2007:Synthesis Report.Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,2007.
[8]秦大河,孙鸿烈,孙枢,等.中国气象事业发展战略研究(总论卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2004.
[9]Houghton J T.Ding Y H.Griggs I) G.Climate change 2001: The scientific basis[M]//Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge;Cambridge University Press,2001.
[10]丁一汇,戴晓苏.中国近百年来的温度变化[J].气象. 1994,20(12):19-26.
[11]任国玉,郭军.徐铭志,等.近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征[J].气象学报,1994,20(1 2):19-26.
[12]林学椿,于淑秋,唐国利.中国近百年温度序列[J].大气科学,1995,19(5):525-534.
[13]杨晓光,刘志娟,陈阜.全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响1.气候变暖对中国种植制度北界和粮食产量可能影响的分析[J].中国农业科学,2010,43(2):329-336.
[14]张佩,高苹,刘彦丽.江苏省冬小麦播种期对气候要素变化的响应[J].气象科学,2011,31(6):763-769.
[15]窦松杰,窦胜勇.利用积温确定最佳播期的方法探索[J].大豆科技,2009,(5):44-45.
[1 6]白洪立,孟淑华,王立功,等.积温变迁对冬小麦夏玉米一年两熟播期的影响[J].作物杂志,2009,(3):55-58.
[1 7]黄中雄,欧钊荣.改进的当量积温法做水稻生育期预测[J].广西农学报,1 999,(2):44-47.
[18]李月华,冯立辉,刘强,等.冀中麦区小麦适宜播种期研究[J].河北农业科学,2008,12(11):1-3,6.
[19]牛丽玲,马焕香,武文安,等.气候变暖对冬小麦适宜播种期的影响分析[J].安徽农业科学,2009,37(3):1 003-1004,1006.
[20]薛大伟,方茂庭,钱前.有效积温在水稻生产中的应用[J].中国稻米,2004,(4):47-48.
[21]周浩,程炳岩,罗孳孳.重庆春播期间降水特征及其与北太平洋海温的关系[J].气象,2011,37(9):1134-1139.
[22]章基嘉,葛玲.中长期天气预报基础[M].北京:气象出版社, 1983:108-174.
[23]梁必骐.天气学[M].北京:气象出版社,1980:281-323.
[24]刘梅,高苹,王静苒,等.江苏夏季逐月高温日数与西太平洋海温场相关分析及预测模型建立[J].气象,2011,37(12):1553- 1559.
[25]汪靖,吕江津.天津地区雨季降水异常年大气环流特征分析[J].气象,2011,37(8):950-955.
[26]邓伟涛,孙照渤,曾刚,等.中国东部夏季降水型的年代际变化及其与北太平洋海温的关系[J].大气科学,2009,33(4): 835-846.
[27]钱维宏,朱江,王永光,等.江淮梅雨和赤道太平洋区域海温变化的关系[J].科学通报,2009,54(1):79-84.
[28]汤志成,高苹.作物产量预报系统[J].中国农业气象,1996,17 (2):49-42.
[29]贾小龙,陈丽娟,龚振淞,等.2010年海洋和大气环流异常及对中国气候的影响[J].气象,2011,37(4):446-4 53.
[30]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.
[31]朱盛明,曲学实.数值预报产品统计解释技术的进展[M].北京:气象出版社,1988:112-116.
[32]汤志成,孙涵.最优化因子处理及加权多重回归模型[J].气象学报,1992,50(4):514-517.
[33]张启锐.实用回归分析[M].北京:地质出版社,1988:196- 203.
[34]高苹,武金岗,杨荣明,等.江苏省稻纵卷叶螟迁入期虫情指标与西太平洋海温的遥相关及其长期预报模型的研究[J].应用生态学报,2008,19(8):2056-2066.
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