江苏海陆局地气候要素分数维对比研究
摘要
将分数维分析方法应用于江苏海洋和内陆的局地温度、气压的气候要素时间演变的对比与分析。通过对盒维数法的变通改进,计算和对比江苏内陆和江苏北部海区近20 a年平均及月平均温压气候要素时间序列的分数维,定量化地指示要素系统及演变的复杂性。在此基础上,设计计算了分数维双向累积频率分布,从分数维频率分布图中提取系统年代际尺度的主要气候特征。依据频率分布的偏态结构,客观选择典型年份,并以流场为例分析系统年代际的典型平均空间背景场结构,得到在这两个年代中,前10 a北方大陆气团较强,流场动力性较强,而后9 a南方热带气团向北移动,流场动力性减弱。总之分数维参数定量化方法能够较确切地描述最近20 a江苏局地海陆气候要素演变特征。
To analyze and compare the temporal evolution characters of the climate elements(temperature and pressure) of Jiangsu inland and offshore areas,an improved box-counting method was used to calculate the fractal dimension of the yearly and monthly element series of three representative stations in the period 1988—2006;and the fractal dimension was used to quantitatively describe the complexity of the evolution of the element systems.Furthermore,a two-side cumulative frequency distribution for the fractal dimension was designed and calculated,and the major climate characters of the evolution systems on the interdecadal scale were extracted from the calculated distributions.According to the bias structure of the cumulative frequency distribution,the typical years for the first 10 years and later 9 years were objectively determined.It has also been found from the typical spatial background fields that in the first decade the northern continental air mass controlled the streamline fields over Jiangsu province with strong momentum;while in the later decade,the wind streamline field was weaker due to the influence of the northward-moved tropical air mass.In short,the fractal dimension method is able to better describe the evolution character of climate element systems of local land and sea areas in Jiangsu in the past 20 years.
To analyze and compare the temporal evolution characters of the climate elements(temperature and pressure) of Jiangsu inland and offshore areas,an improved box-counting method was used to calculate the fractal dimension of the yearly and monthly element series of three representative stations in the period 1988—2006;and the fractal dimension was used to quantitatively describe the complexity of the evolution of the element systems.Furthermore,a two-side cumulative frequency distribution for the fractal dimension was designed and calculated,and the major climate characters of the evolution systems on the interdecadal scale were extracted from the calculated distributions.According to the bias structure of the cumulative frequency distribution,the typical years for the first 10 years and later 9 years were objectively determined.It has also been found from the typical spatial background fields that in the first decade the northern continental air mass controlled the streamline fields over Jiangsu province with strong momentum;while in the later decade,the wind streamline field was weaker due to the influence of the northward-moved tropical air mass.In short,the fractal dimension method is able to better describe the evolution character of climate element systems of local land and sea areas in Jiangsu in the past 20 years.
引文
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[2]刘式达,刘式适.分形和分维引论[M].北京:气象出版社,1993.
[3]吴洪宝,吴蕾.气候变率诊断和预测方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2005.
[4]李水根,吴纪桃.分型与小波[M].北京:科学出版社,2002.
[5]Mandelbrot B B.Fractals:Form,chance and dimension[M].SanFrancisco:W.H.Freeman,1977.
[6]陈颙,陈凌.分形几何学[M].北京:地震出版社,2005.
[7]孙博玲.分形维数(Fractal dimension)及其测量方法[J].东北林业大学学报,2004,32(3):116-119.
[8]孙霞,吴自勤,黄帆.分形原理及其应用[M].合肥:中国科学技术大学出版社,2003.
[9]马石安.基于迭代函数系统的不规则曲线的模拟[J].江汉大学学报,2001,18(6):75-77.
[10]文沃根.分数维的原理及应用[J].测绘科学,1995(1):3-8.
[11]郑红军,刘向君,苟迎春,等.用分维模型定量表征储集层非均质性[J].新疆石油地质,2005,26(4):418-420.
[12]刘式达,郑祖光,赵汉光.气候层次和分数维[J].气象学报,1993,51(3):333-342.
[13]刘式达.非线性科学研究地球系统的意义[C]∥分形与分维在地球科学中的应用.北京:学术期刊出版社,1988:132-143.
[14]严绍瑾,彭永清,张运刚.一维气温时间序列的多重分形研究[J].热带气象学报,1996,12(3):207-211.
[15]周春林,林春旺.不同时间尺度气候变化的分维研究[J].灾害学,1997,12(2):6-10.
[16]复旦大学数学系.数学分析(上册)[M].上海:上海科学技术出版社,1978.
目录