水灾恢复力评估研究:以湖南省长沙市为例
摘要
依据恢复力和脆弱性的内在联系,提出适合水灾恢复力的评估模型,并选择湖南省长沙市为研究区进行恢复力指数构建的尝试.结果表明,"每一农业人口占有耕地""城乡消费水平差距"和"城乡收入水平差异"3个指标是影响研究区恢复力的关键因子.研究区水灾恢复力在1980—2006年间总体情况较为平稳,1990年的恢复力水平最低,2004年的恢复力水平最高.估算得出的2007年研究区水灾恢复力空间分布结果为芙蓉区最高,长沙县最低.
The objective is to develop a conceptual and methodological framework for analysis and measurement of flood resilience.According to relationship between resilience and vulnerability,a proper assessment model is developed and a pilot application is made in Changsha.With this method,three variables,which actually affect flood resilience in Changsha,have been found.The dynamic process of flood resilience in Changsha is calculated.Flood resilience index in nine districts or counties in Changsha is compared.This method is also appropriate for analysis of social resilience to other types of hazards,providing new ideas for community risk management.
The objective is to develop a conceptual and methodological framework for analysis and measurement of flood resilience.According to relationship between resilience and vulnerability,a proper assessment model is developed and a pilot application is made in Changsha.With this method,three variables,which actually affect flood resilience in Changsha,have been found.The dynamic process of flood resilience in Changsha is calculated.Flood resilience index in nine districts or counties in Changsha is compared.This method is also appropriate for analysis of social resilience to other types of hazards,providing new ideas for community risk management.
引文
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[2]UN/ISDR.Living with risk:a global review of disasterreduction initiatives[M].Geneva:United Nations,2004
[3]史培军,郭卫平,李晓兵,等.减灾与可持续发展模式:从第二次世界减灾大会看中国减灾战略的挑战[J].自然灾害学报,2005,14(3):1
[4]Pimm S L.The complexity and stability of ecosystems[J].Nature,1984,307:321
[5]O Neill R V,Deangelis D L,Waide J B,et al.Ahierarchical concept of ecosystems[M].Princeton N J:Princeton University Press,1986
[6]Tilman D,Downing J A.Biodiversity and stability ingrasslands[J].Nature,1994.367:363
[7]Gunderson L H.Perspectives on resilience[M]∥FikretBerkes J C,Carl Folke.Navigating social-ecologicalsystems:building resilience for complexity and change.New York:Cambridge University Press,2003:35
[8]Gunderson L H,Holling C S.Panarchy:understandingtransformations in human and natural systems[M].Washington D C.Island Press,2002
[9]Holling C S.Engineering resiliecne versus ecologicalresilience[M]∥Peter Schulze.Engineering withinecological constraints.Washington D C:The NationalAcademies Press,1996:31-43
[10]Holling C S.Resilience and stability of ecologicalsystems[J].Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics,1973(4):12
[11]Walker B H,Ludwig D,Holling C S,et al.Stability ofsemi-arid savanna grazing systems[J].Ecology,1969,69:473
[12]Beisner B E,Haydon D T,Cuddington K.Alternativestable states in ecology[J].Frontiers in Ecology andthe Environment,2003.1(7):376
[13]孙晶,王俊,杨新军.社会-生态系统恢复力研究综述[J].生态学报,2007.27(12):5371
[14]Walker B H,Holling C S,Carpenter S R,et al.Resilience,adaptability and transformability in social-ecological systems[J].Ecology and Society,2004,9(2):5
[15]Bruneau M,Eeri A M,Chang S E,et al.A frameworkto quantitatively assess and enhance the seismicresilience of communities[J].Earthquake Spectra,2003,19(4):733
[16]McDaniels T,Chang S,Cole D,et al.Fostering resilienceto extreme events within infrastructure systems:chara-cterizing decision contexts for mitigation and adaptation[J].Global Environmental Change,2008,18(2):310
[17]Chang S E,Chamberlin C.Assessing the role of lifelinesystems in community disaster resilience[M]∥Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake EngineeringResearch.Research Progress and Accomplishments:2003—2004(MCEER-04-SP01).Buffalo:MCEERPublications,2004:87-94
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