应用多普勒天气雷达资料对四川“7·3”暴雨的变分同化试验
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摘要
针对2011年7月3日四川地区一次强降雨过程,以NECP/NCAR 1°×1°再分析资料为背景场,采用中尺度数值天气预报模式WRF及其三维变分同化系统3DVAR,同时对多普勒天气雷达的径向速度和反射率因子进行了三维变分同化对暴雨模拟效果影响的研究。结果表明:同化了雷达资料后的初始场能够更加精细的刻画初始风场和水汽通量场的分布与数值,能展现出风场的辐合辐散区域,对水汽通量的中心位置有较大影响,大风速区域和水汽通量高值中心有较好的对应关系;同化了多普勒雷达资料后能较为明显的改变降雨落区及强度的预报精度,前6h有明显的改善作用,随着时间的增加改善作用逐渐减小,前9小时改进作用仍很明显,对比24小时实况降雨仍存在一定的改善作用;经过质量控制后的雷达资料对暴雨预报的改善作用要优于未进行质量控制的雷达资料以及每隔一小时加入一次雷达资料要优于每隔半小时加入雷达资料对于暴雨预报的改善作用。
In order to study the influence of Doppler radar radial velocity and reflectivity factor in the numerical simulation of heavy rainfall event,usingNECP reanalysis data as background field,a investigation by WRF and WRF-3DVAR.is conducted on a heavy rainfall event occurred in sichuan province on July 3,2011.The results show that:The initial field assimilated the radar data can be describe the initial wind and water vapor flux distribution in more detail and show a wind field convergence and then,has great influence on to the center of the vapor flux.The big wind speed area and the vapor flux high value center has good corresponding relation;Assimilated Doppler radar data can obviously change the forecast accuracy of the drop zone and strength of the rainfall.There is obvious improvement in the first 6 hours and the improvement is reduced gradually.9 hours forecast still has improvement.compared results showed that 24 hours of live rainfall forecast still has some improvement;The assimilation experiment result with the quality control of the radar data is better than the result without quality control and a one hour assimilation interval is better than those with half an hour interval.
In order to study the influence of Doppler radar radial velocity and reflectivity factor in the numerical simulation of heavy rainfall event,usingNECP reanalysis data as background field,a investigation by WRF and WRF-3DVAR.is conducted on a heavy rainfall event occurred in sichuan province on July 3,2011.The results show that:The initial field assimilated the radar data can be describe the initial wind and water vapor flux distribution in more detail and show a wind field convergence and then,has great influence on to the center of the vapor flux.The big wind speed area and the vapor flux high value center has good corresponding relation;Assimilated Doppler radar data can obviously change the forecast accuracy of the drop zone and strength of the rainfall.There is obvious improvement in the first 6 hours and the improvement is reduced gradually.9 hours forecast still has improvement.compared results showed that 24 hours of live rainfall forecast still has some improvement;The assimilation experiment result with the quality control of the radar data is better than the result without quality control and a one hour assimilation interval is better than those with half an hour interval.
引文
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[2]丑纪范.大气科学中的非线性与复杂性[M].北京:气象出版社,2002.
[3]潘敖大,王桂臣,张红华,等.多普勒雷达资料对暴雨定量预报的同化对比试验[J].气象科学,2009,29(6):755-760.
[4]赵文斌,齐琳琳,何宏让,等.多普勒天气雷达资料在暴雨数值模拟中的同化应用[J].气象科学,2011,31(3):318-324.
[5]XIAO Q,KUO Y,SUN J,LEE W.Assimilation of Doppler radar observation with a regional 3DVAR system:impact of Doppler velocities on forecasts of a heavy rainfall case[J].J.Appl.Metor,2005,44(3):768-788.
[6]赖安伟,闵静忠.三维变分多普勒雷达资料直接同化试验研究[D].南京信息工程大学理学硕士学位论文,2008.
[7]顾建峰,颜宏,薛纪善,等.多普勒天气雷达资料三维变分直接同化方法研究博士论文[C].2006.
[8]杨艳蓉,王振会,张沛源.利用多普勒天气雷达资料对一次暴雨过程的同化模拟[J].南京气象学院学报,2008,31(5):633-639.
[9]Xiao Qingnong,Kuo Yinghua,Sun Juanzhen.Et Assimilation Of Doppler Radar Observation with are regional3DVAR system:Impact of Doppler velocities on forecasts of a heavy rainfall case[J].J.App1.Mercer.,2005,(44):768-788.
[10]杨毅,邱崇践,龚建东,希爽.利用3维变分方法同化多普勒天气雷达资料的试验研究[J].气象科学,2008,28(2):124.13.
[11]张沛源,周海光,胡绍萍.双多普勒天气雷达风场探测的可靠性研究[J].应用气象学报,2002,13(4):485-496.
[12]杨毅,邱崇践.多普勒雷达资料格点化方案的比较研究[J].干旱气象,2004,22(2):6-10.
[13]万齐林,薛纪善,陈子通,等.雷达TREC风的三维变分同化应用与试验[J].热带气象学报,2005,21(5):449-457.
[14]刘寅,闵锦忠.多普勒雷达资料直接同化试验研究[D].硕士论文,南京:南京信息工程大学,2006.
[15]闵锦忠,彭霞云,赖安伟,等.反演同化和直接同化多普勒雷达径向风的对比试验[J].南京气象学院学报,2007,30(6),745-754.
[16]顾建峰,颜宏,薛纪善,等.多普勒雷达资料三维变分直接同化研究方法[D].南京:中国气象科学研究院、南京信息工程大学联合培养博士学位论文,2006.
[17]杨毅,邱崇践,龚建东.Doppler雷达资料同化研究技术[D].兰州:兰州大学博士学位论文,2007.
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