四川汶川8.0级地震及未来地震趋势分析
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摘要
本文介绍了四川省汶川县8.0级地震前给出的趋势异常,即中国大陆M≥7.7级地震活动成组性和苏门答腊—中蒙交界地区M≥7.7级地震震中南北往返迁移等。文中根据中国大陆M≥7.7级地震活动成组性特点,指出2008年5月12日汶川8.0级地震的发生可能标志着自2001年至今形成的M≥7.7级地震活动组结束。但是,中国大陆未来3年有发生7级地震的可能。鉴于特定区内的地震活动特点,文中指出2006年7月4日河北文安5.1级地震可能是华北地区未来发生大震的震兆。
In this paper,we have introduced the abnormal earthquake activities before Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake in Sichuan Province,such as the earthquake of M>7.7 in mainland of China occurred in grouping feature and the migration of earthquake with M≥7.7 between Sumatra and China-Mongolian border.In accordance with the grouping feature of M≥7.7 earthquake activities,we have pointed out that Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake on May 12,2008 might mark the end of the period of M≥7.7 earthquake activity in Chinese mainland since 2001.However,the earthquake with M=7 may be taken place in Chinese mainland still in the next three years.Based on the characteristics of the seismic activity in specific region,it indicates that the Wen′an M5.1 earthquake on July 4,2006 in Hebei province may be the precursor of the next strong earthquake in North China.
In this paper,we have introduced the abnormal earthquake activities before Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake in Sichuan Province,such as the earthquake of M>7.7 in mainland of China occurred in grouping feature and the migration of earthquake with M≥7.7 between Sumatra and China-Mongolian border.In accordance with the grouping feature of M≥7.7 earthquake activities,we have pointed out that Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake on May 12,2008 might mark the end of the period of M≥7.7 earthquake activity in Chinese mainland since 2001.However,the earthquake with M=7 may be taken place in Chinese mainland still in the next three years.Based on the characteristics of the seismic activity in specific region,it indicates that the Wen′an M5.1 earthquake on July 4,2006 in Hebei province may be the precursor of the next strong earthquake in North China.
引文
[1]林怀存,李霞,苏鸾生,等.中国大陆M≥734级地震活动的特点及趋势分析.地震,2002,22(3):71-76
[2]林怀存,吴延河,周翠英,等.印度洋8.7级地震及对未来地震趋势的讨论.国际地震动态,2005(1):32-37
[3]林怀存,郭爱香,刘希强.4 34~6 12级地震活动特定区的震兆性.地球物理学报,1998.41(增刊):263-269
[2]林怀存,吴延河,周翠英,等.印度洋8.7级地震及对未来地震趋势的讨论.国际地震动态,2005(1):32-37
[3]林怀存,郭爱香,刘希强.4 34~6 12级地震活动特定区的震兆性.地球物理学报,1998.41(增刊):263-269
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