基于相关性和关联耦合分析的上海市生态环境优化思考
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摘要
城市生态环境是人类繁衍生息的重要基础,对其在时间和空间层面的演进趋势和规律的认识,有助于优化和提升其质量。在提出利用相关分析、关联耦合分析两种方法对上海市生态环境进行时空演化特征和优化途径研究的思路/技术路线的基础上,采用相关性分析方法,计算获得了上海市2000-2011年的大气环境、水环境、废弃物处理、绿化水平若干要素之间及要素群内部的皮尔逊相关系数;计算获得了上海市2012年各区县的若干生态环境要素与城市空间发展强度、综合生态安全水平、工业综合能耗等指标的皮尔逊相关系数数据。采用关联耦合分析方法,在时间角度,将上海市的生态环境要素分为质量表征指标和对生态环境质量产生直接或间接影响的指标两类,计算荻得了上海市2000—2011年间两类指标的关联系数、关联度、耦合度和协调度;在空间角度,计算获得了上海市17个区县的人口经济要素群与生态环境要素群的关联度、耦合度和协调度。基于时间和空间角度的相关性和关联耦合分析方法获得的各类结论,兼顾考虑上海生态环境要素群指标对上海人均期望寿命的影响和作用,从削减(降低)不利因素,提高(增加)有利因素等角度,提出了优化上海生态环境的若干建议。
Urban ecological environment is an important basis for human reproduction,which is closely related with urban residents on a daily basis.This article analyzes the ecological environment of Shanghai based on correlation and coupling of two-perspectives,which helps shed light on the changing ecological environment and spatial distribution in Shanghai.The result is useful for refining the law and making recommendations for optimizing the city' s urban ecological environment.The research is based on data from 2000 and 2011 and calculates the pearson' s correlation coefficients between variables measuring atmospheric features,water body features,solid waste treatment and greenery provision.It also examines the relationships between environmental variable and spatial development intensity,overall ecological security,manufacturing energy consumption and so on.In the coupling analysis,the paper divides ecological variables into environmental quality indicators and direct or indirect causal factors.Relationships between the two groups of variables are explored along temporal scale.Spatially,the relationships between socioeconomic variables and ecological characters are also examined.Built on the statistical analysis,the implications of environmental factors on life expectancy is discussed.Finally,the paper provides recommendations for mitigating negative factors and enhancing positive vactors toward optimizing the city's ecological environment.
Urban ecological environment is an important basis for human reproduction,which is closely related with urban residents on a daily basis.This article analyzes the ecological environment of Shanghai based on correlation and coupling of two-perspectives,which helps shed light on the changing ecological environment and spatial distribution in Shanghai.The result is useful for refining the law and making recommendations for optimizing the city' s urban ecological environment.The research is based on data from 2000 and 2011 and calculates the pearson' s correlation coefficients between variables measuring atmospheric features,water body features,solid waste treatment and greenery provision.It also examines the relationships between environmental variable and spatial development intensity,overall ecological security,manufacturing energy consumption and so on.In the coupling analysis,the paper divides ecological variables into environmental quality indicators and direct or indirect causal factors.Relationships between the two groups of variables are explored along temporal scale.Spatially,the relationships between socioeconomic variables and ecological characters are also examined.Built on the statistical analysis,the implications of environmental factors on life expectancy is discussed.Finally,the paper provides recommendations for mitigating negative factors and enhancing positive vactors toward optimizing the city's ecological environment.
引文
[1]白春礼.世界正处在新科技革命前夜[N].光明日报,2013-01-21(5).(BAI Chunli.The world is on the eve of the new technological revolution[N].Guangming Daily,2013-01-21(5).)
[2]CIARROCCA M,ROSAT1 M V,TOMEI F.Correlation between cadmium and blood counts in workers exposed to urban scressor[J].Archives of Environmental&Occupational Health,2015,70(2):70-76.
[3]陈志,孙志国,刘成武.土地利用变化与生态环境质量的相关性研究[J].生态经济,2009(7):170-173.(CHEN Zhi,SUN Zhiguo,LIU Chengwu.Study on relativity between land—use and environment quality[J].Ecological Economic,2009(7):170-173.)
[4]DUARTE R M.B.O.,FREIRE S M.S.C,DUARTE A C.Investigating the water—soluble organic functionality of urban aerosols using two-dimensional correlation of solid—state C-13 NMR and FTIR spectral data[J].Atmospheric Environment,2015,116(9):245-252.
[5]HELLSTEN A,LUUKKONEN S M,STEINFELD G,et al.Footprint evaluation for flux and concentration measurements for an urban-like canopy with coupled lagrangian stochastic and large-eddy simulation models[J].Boundary—Layer Meteorology,2015,157(2):191-217.
[6]李彬,初然梁,刘永伟,害:生态环境与健康长寿老人相关性研究[J].疑难病杂志,2012(6):445-448.(LI Bin,CHU Ranliang,LIU Yongwei,et al.Correlation study of ecological environment and heathy longevous elderly[J].Chinese Journal of Difficult and Complicated Cases,2012(6):445-448.)
[7]李磊,潘慧玲.区域经济与生态环境的关联耦合[J].技术经济,2012(9):59-64.(LI Lei,PAN Huiling.Correlative coupling between regional economy and eco-environment[J].Technology Economics,2012(9):59-64.)
[8]刘耀彬,李仁东,宋学锋.中国区域城市化与生态环境耦合的关联分析卟地理学报,2005(2):237-247.(LIU Yaobin,LI Rendong,SONG Xuefeng.Grey association analysis of regional urbanization and eco-environment coupling in China[J].Acta Geographic Sinica,2005(2):237-247.)
[9]李义,王建荣.陕西省生态环境与经济发展相关性分析[J].统计与决策,2002(6):35-36.(LI Yi,WANG Jianrong.The correlation analysis of ecological environment and economic development in Shaanxi province[J].Statistics and Decision,2002(6):35-36.)
[10]马丽,金凤君,刘毅.中国经济与环境污染耦合度格局及工业结构解析[J].地理学报,2012(10):1299-1307.(MA Li,JIN Fengjun,LIU Yi.Spatial pattern and industrial sector structure analysis on the coupling and coordinating degree of regional economic development and environmental pollution in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2012(10):1299-1307.)
[11]MALLIK C,LAL S,VENKATARAMANI S.Trace gases at a semi-arid urban site in western India:variability and inter—correlations[J].Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry,2015,72(2):143-164.
[12]PAGLIOSA P R,BARBOSA FAR.Assessing the environment—benthic fauna coupling in protected and urban areas of southern Brazil[J].Biological Conservation,2006,123(3):408-417.
[13]RIENOW A,STENGER D,MENZ G.Sprawling cities and shrinking regions-forecasting urban growth in the ruhr for 2025 by coupling cells and agents[J].Erdkunde,2014,68(2):85-107.
[14]上海市城市规划设计研究院.转型上海规划战略[M].同济大学出版社,2012.(Shanghai Urban Planning and Design Research Institute.Transformation of Shanghai&planning strategy[M].Tongji University Press,2012.)
[15]上海市城市规划设计研究院.上海市基本生态网络规划][EB/OL].[2015-11-01].http://www.supdri.com/index.php?c=article&id=89.(Shanghai Urban Planning and Design Research Institute.Shanghai basic ecological network planning[EB/OL].[2015-11-01].)
[16]沈洁.城市人群期望寿命趋势及影响因素研究[D].复旦大学博士学位论文,2013.(SHEN Jie.Changing trends of life expectancy and effect on associated factors in China urban cities[D].The Dissertation for Doctor Degree of Fudan University,2013.)
[17]沈清基.城市生态环境:原理、方法与优化[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2011.(SHEN Qingji.Urban ecological environment:principles,methods and optimization[M],Beijing:China Architecture&Building Press,2011.)
[18]沈清基,等.基于SSM-ES-GIS的城市生态安全空间格局分析及构建研究[R].上海:上海同济城市规划设计研究院,2015.(SHEN Qingji,et al.Research of urban ecological security spatial pattern analysis and construction based on SSM-ES-GIS[R].Shanghai:Shanghai Tongji Urban Planning&Design Institute,2015.)
[19]宋代军,杨贵庆.“关联耦合法”在城市设计中的运用与思考IJ].城市规划学刊,2007(5):65-71.(SONG Daijun,YANG Guiqing.Application and consideration of linkage theory in urban design[J].Urban Planning Forum,2007(5):65-71.)
[20]孙正聿,等.马克思主义基础理论研究[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,2011.(SUN Zhengyu,et al.Marxist theory foundation[M].Beijing:Beijing Normal University Press,2011.)
[21]谭许伟,李晓宇,殷健,等.沈阳城市土地利用与生态环境相关性分析及空间优化策略[C]//中国城市规划学会,2010中国城市规划年会论文集.2010:1-15.(TAN Xuwei,LI Xiaoyu,YIN Jian,et al.Shenyang urban land use and ecological environment and spatial correlation analysis optimization strategy[C].Urban Planning Society of China,China urban planning symposium 2010,2010:1—15.)
[22]TIMBADIYA P V,PATEL P L,POREY P D.A.1D—2D Coupled hydrodynamic model for river flood prediction in a coastal urban floodplain[J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2015,20(2):17-33.
[23]VAZ E,ARSANJANI J J.Predicting urban growth of the greater toronto area——coupling a markov cellular automata with document meta-analysis[J].Journal of Environmental Informatics,2015,25(2):71-80.
[24]WILLIAMS C J,WILLOCKS L J,LAKE I R.Geographic correlation between deprivation and risk of meningococcal disease:an ecological study[J].Bmc Public Health,2004,4(7):30-40.
[25]YE Youhua,ZHOU Kai,SONG Liying.Dew amounts and its correlations with meteorological factors in urban landscapes of Guangzhou China[J].Atmospheric Research,2007,86(1):21-29.
[26]YU Huibin,SONG Yonghui,GAO Hongjie.Applying fluorescence spectroscopy and multivariable analysis to characterize structural composition of dissolved organic matter and its correlation with water quality in an urban river[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2015,73(9):5163-5171.
[27]赵宏林,陈东辉.城市化与生态环境之关联耦合性分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008(6):174-177.(ZHAO Honglin,CHEN Donghui.Study on conjunction and coupling between urbanization and eco-environment[J].China Population,Resource and Environment,2008(6):174-177.)
[28]赵世明,刘富铀,张智慧,等.海洋能调查与评价的相关性分析[J].海洋技术,2008(2):109-112.(ZHAO Shiming,LIU Fuyou,ZHANG Zhihui,et al.Correlation analysis of ocean energy survey and evaluation[J].Ocean Technology,2008(2):109-112.)
[29]孜比布拉·司马义,苏力叶·木沙江,帕夏古·阿不来提.南疆铁路沿线地区城市化与生态环境质量相关性分析[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(6):1509-1515.(SIMAYI Z,MUSHAJIANG S,ABULAITI P.Correlation between urbanization and ecological environment in areas along south Xinjiang railroad[J].Journal of Desert Research,2011(6):1509-1515.)
①2015-11-1,在CNKI中,以“生态环境”+“关联耦合”进行“篇名”检索,共7篇。
②2015-11-1,在WEB OF SCIENCE(SCI)中,以“urban”+“coupling”进行“标题”检索,共177篇。
③2015-11-1,在CNKI中。以“生态环境”+“相关性”+“关联耦合”为“篇名”检索,结果为0篇;在WEB OF SCIENCE(SCI)中,以“urban”+“correlation”+“coupling”进行“标题”检索,结果为0篇。
④上海环境网站:http://www.sepb.gov.cn/fa/cms/shhj/index.htm。
⑤上海市政府门户网站:http://www.shanghai.gov.cn/shanghai/node2314/index.htm。
⑥中央气象台网站:http://www.weather.com.cn/weather/101020100.shtml。
⑦上海气象台网站:http://www.smb.gov.cn/index.html。
⑧数学方法和计算公式参考了马丽等(2012)和李磊等(2012)。
⑨空气质量指数采用2013年12月3日上海气象台和中央气象台相关数据。
⑩空间发展强度指数采用了建筑面积毛密度(万m~2/km~2)、高层建筑(8层及以上)面积毛密度(万m~2/km~2)、地均GDP(亿元/km~2)等三个指标,在正向归一化处理之后,进行算术平均运算后与100的乘积作为该指数,以上三个指标的相关数据来源于《上海统计年鉴(2013)》。
[11]综合生态安全指数数据来源于:沈清基等,2015,见参考文献[18]。
[12]生态用地比例数据来源于:上海市城市规划设计研究院,2012;上海市城市规划设计研究院。2015。
[13]式(1)中,k为要素数量,i为要素类型,ε)i(j)(t)是两要素群内要素间的关联系数,计算公式为:(?)
[14]式(2)中,p是分辨系数,本研究中取p=0.5,Z_i~X(t)和Z_j~Y(t)是两要素群内要素标准化后的值;n指耦合系统(要素群)的数量,本文中均为对两个要素群的分析,即n=2;U_i=ε_i(j)(t)。
[15]式(3)中,C是耦合度,T是综合协调指数,计算公式为T=(aU_1+βU_2)~(1/2)。其中,α、β是待定系数,系数的个数是根据本研究中涉及的系统(要素群)数量取得的,本研究中均按照两系统同等重要对其进行赋值,即α=β=0.5。
[2]CIARROCCA M,ROSAT1 M V,TOMEI F.Correlation between cadmium and blood counts in workers exposed to urban scressor[J].Archives of Environmental&Occupational Health,2015,70(2):70-76.
[3]陈志,孙志国,刘成武.土地利用变化与生态环境质量的相关性研究[J].生态经济,2009(7):170-173.(CHEN Zhi,SUN Zhiguo,LIU Chengwu.Study on relativity between land—use and environment quality[J].Ecological Economic,2009(7):170-173.)
[4]DUARTE R M.B.O.,FREIRE S M.S.C,DUARTE A C.Investigating the water—soluble organic functionality of urban aerosols using two-dimensional correlation of solid—state C-13 NMR and FTIR spectral data[J].Atmospheric Environment,2015,116(9):245-252.
[5]HELLSTEN A,LUUKKONEN S M,STEINFELD G,et al.Footprint evaluation for flux and concentration measurements for an urban-like canopy with coupled lagrangian stochastic and large-eddy simulation models[J].Boundary—Layer Meteorology,2015,157(2):191-217.
[6]李彬,初然梁,刘永伟,害:生态环境与健康长寿老人相关性研究[J].疑难病杂志,2012(6):445-448.(LI Bin,CHU Ranliang,LIU Yongwei,et al.Correlation study of ecological environment and heathy longevous elderly[J].Chinese Journal of Difficult and Complicated Cases,2012(6):445-448.)
[7]李磊,潘慧玲.区域经济与生态环境的关联耦合[J].技术经济,2012(9):59-64.(LI Lei,PAN Huiling.Correlative coupling between regional economy and eco-environment[J].Technology Economics,2012(9):59-64.)
[8]刘耀彬,李仁东,宋学锋.中国区域城市化与生态环境耦合的关联分析卟地理学报,2005(2):237-247.(LIU Yaobin,LI Rendong,SONG Xuefeng.Grey association analysis of regional urbanization and eco-environment coupling in China[J].Acta Geographic Sinica,2005(2):237-247.)
[9]李义,王建荣.陕西省生态环境与经济发展相关性分析[J].统计与决策,2002(6):35-36.(LI Yi,WANG Jianrong.The correlation analysis of ecological environment and economic development in Shaanxi province[J].Statistics and Decision,2002(6):35-36.)
[10]马丽,金凤君,刘毅.中国经济与环境污染耦合度格局及工业结构解析[J].地理学报,2012(10):1299-1307.(MA Li,JIN Fengjun,LIU Yi.Spatial pattern and industrial sector structure analysis on the coupling and coordinating degree of regional economic development and environmental pollution in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2012(10):1299-1307.)
[11]MALLIK C,LAL S,VENKATARAMANI S.Trace gases at a semi-arid urban site in western India:variability and inter—correlations[J].Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry,2015,72(2):143-164.
[12]PAGLIOSA P R,BARBOSA FAR.Assessing the environment—benthic fauna coupling in protected and urban areas of southern Brazil[J].Biological Conservation,2006,123(3):408-417.
[13]RIENOW A,STENGER D,MENZ G.Sprawling cities and shrinking regions-forecasting urban growth in the ruhr for 2025 by coupling cells and agents[J].Erdkunde,2014,68(2):85-107.
[14]上海市城市规划设计研究院.转型上海规划战略[M].同济大学出版社,2012.(Shanghai Urban Planning and Design Research Institute.Transformation of Shanghai&planning strategy[M].Tongji University Press,2012.)
[15]上海市城市规划设计研究院.上海市基本生态网络规划][EB/OL].[2015-11-01].http://www.supdri.com/index.php?c=article&id=89.(Shanghai Urban Planning and Design Research Institute.Shanghai basic ecological network planning[EB/OL].[2015-11-01].)
[16]沈洁.城市人群期望寿命趋势及影响因素研究[D].复旦大学博士学位论文,2013.(SHEN Jie.Changing trends of life expectancy and effect on associated factors in China urban cities[D].The Dissertation for Doctor Degree of Fudan University,2013.)
[17]沈清基.城市生态环境:原理、方法与优化[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2011.(SHEN Qingji.Urban ecological environment:principles,methods and optimization[M],Beijing:China Architecture&Building Press,2011.)
[18]沈清基,等.基于SSM-ES-GIS的城市生态安全空间格局分析及构建研究[R].上海:上海同济城市规划设计研究院,2015.(SHEN Qingji,et al.Research of urban ecological security spatial pattern analysis and construction based on SSM-ES-GIS[R].Shanghai:Shanghai Tongji Urban Planning&Design Institute,2015.)
[19]宋代军,杨贵庆.“关联耦合法”在城市设计中的运用与思考IJ].城市规划学刊,2007(5):65-71.(SONG Daijun,YANG Guiqing.Application and consideration of linkage theory in urban design[J].Urban Planning Forum,2007(5):65-71.)
[20]孙正聿,等.马克思主义基础理论研究[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,2011.(SUN Zhengyu,et al.Marxist theory foundation[M].Beijing:Beijing Normal University Press,2011.)
[21]谭许伟,李晓宇,殷健,等.沈阳城市土地利用与生态环境相关性分析及空间优化策略[C]//中国城市规划学会,2010中国城市规划年会论文集.2010:1-15.(TAN Xuwei,LI Xiaoyu,YIN Jian,et al.Shenyang urban land use and ecological environment and spatial correlation analysis optimization strategy[C].Urban Planning Society of China,China urban planning symposium 2010,2010:1—15.)
[22]TIMBADIYA P V,PATEL P L,POREY P D.A.1D—2D Coupled hydrodynamic model for river flood prediction in a coastal urban floodplain[J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2015,20(2):17-33.
[23]VAZ E,ARSANJANI J J.Predicting urban growth of the greater toronto area——coupling a markov cellular automata with document meta-analysis[J].Journal of Environmental Informatics,2015,25(2):71-80.
[24]WILLIAMS C J,WILLOCKS L J,LAKE I R.Geographic correlation between deprivation and risk of meningococcal disease:an ecological study[J].Bmc Public Health,2004,4(7):30-40.
[25]YE Youhua,ZHOU Kai,SONG Liying.Dew amounts and its correlations with meteorological factors in urban landscapes of Guangzhou China[J].Atmospheric Research,2007,86(1):21-29.
[26]YU Huibin,SONG Yonghui,GAO Hongjie.Applying fluorescence spectroscopy and multivariable analysis to characterize structural composition of dissolved organic matter and its correlation with water quality in an urban river[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2015,73(9):5163-5171.
[27]赵宏林,陈东辉.城市化与生态环境之关联耦合性分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008(6):174-177.(ZHAO Honglin,CHEN Donghui.Study on conjunction and coupling between urbanization and eco-environment[J].China Population,Resource and Environment,2008(6):174-177.)
[28]赵世明,刘富铀,张智慧,等.海洋能调查与评价的相关性分析[J].海洋技术,2008(2):109-112.(ZHAO Shiming,LIU Fuyou,ZHANG Zhihui,et al.Correlation analysis of ocean energy survey and evaluation[J].Ocean Technology,2008(2):109-112.)
[29]孜比布拉·司马义,苏力叶·木沙江,帕夏古·阿不来提.南疆铁路沿线地区城市化与生态环境质量相关性分析[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(6):1509-1515.(SIMAYI Z,MUSHAJIANG S,ABULAITI P.Correlation between urbanization and ecological environment in areas along south Xinjiang railroad[J].Journal of Desert Research,2011(6):1509-1515.)
①2015-11-1,在CNKI中,以“生态环境”+“关联耦合”进行“篇名”检索,共7篇。
②2015-11-1,在WEB OF SCIENCE(SCI)中,以“urban”+“coupling”进行“标题”检索,共177篇。
③2015-11-1,在CNKI中。以“生态环境”+“相关性”+“关联耦合”为“篇名”检索,结果为0篇;在WEB OF SCIENCE(SCI)中,以“urban”+“correlation”+“coupling”进行“标题”检索,结果为0篇。
④上海环境网站:http://www.sepb.gov.cn/fa/cms/shhj/index.htm。
⑤上海市政府门户网站:http://www.shanghai.gov.cn/shanghai/node2314/index.htm。
⑥中央气象台网站:http://www.weather.com.cn/weather/101020100.shtml。
⑦上海气象台网站:http://www.smb.gov.cn/index.html。
⑧数学方法和计算公式参考了马丽等(2012)和李磊等(2012)。
⑨空气质量指数采用2013年12月3日上海气象台和中央气象台相关数据。
⑩空间发展强度指数采用了建筑面积毛密度(万m~2/km~2)、高层建筑(8层及以上)面积毛密度(万m~2/km~2)、地均GDP(亿元/km~2)等三个指标,在正向归一化处理之后,进行算术平均运算后与100的乘积作为该指数,以上三个指标的相关数据来源于《上海统计年鉴(2013)》。
[11]综合生态安全指数数据来源于:沈清基等,2015,见参考文献[18]。
[12]生态用地比例数据来源于:上海市城市规划设计研究院,2012;上海市城市规划设计研究院。2015。
[13]式(1)中,k为要素数量,i为要素类型,ε)i(j)(t)是两要素群内要素间的关联系数,计算公式为:(?)
[14]式(2)中,p是分辨系数,本研究中取p=0.5,Z_i~X(t)和Z_j~Y(t)是两要素群内要素标准化后的值;n指耦合系统(要素群)的数量,本文中均为对两个要素群的分析,即n=2;U_i=ε_i(j)(t)。
[15]式(3)中,C是耦合度,T是综合协调指数,计算公式为T=(aU_1+βU_2)~(1/2)。其中,α、β是待定系数,系数的个数是根据本研究中涉及的系统(要素群)数量取得的,本研究中均按照两系统同等重要对其进行赋值,即α=β=0.5。
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