Investigating habitat-specific plant species pools under climate change
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- 作者：Sven Pompe ; Jan Hanspach ; Franz-W. Badeck ; Stefan Klotz ; Helge Bruelheide ; Ingolf Kü ; hn
- 关键词：Climate change impacts ; Range change ; Plant species distribution modelling ; Dissimilarity ; Germany
- 刊名：Basic and Applied Ecology
- 出版年：2010
- 出版时间：November 2010
- 年：2010
- 卷：11
- 期：7
- 页码：603-611
- 全文大小：413 K
文摘
We used 474 European plant species to analyse the impacts of climate and land-use change on the composition of habitat-specific species pools in Germany. We quantified changes in the probability of occurrence of species in a grid cell using an ensemble of three statistical modelling techniques, namely generalized linear models (GLMs), generalized additive models (GAMs) and random forests (RFs), under three scenarios (average change +2.2, +2.9, and +3.8 °C up to 2080). We evaluated the impact on single species occurrence and resulting species pools considering their affiliation to ten major terrestrial habitat types in both current (1961–90) and future projections (2051–80). Current habitat-specific species pools declined in size across all scenarios, e.g. by 24 ± 13 % (mean ± s.d.) under the most severe scenario. We show that species responses may strongly vary among scenarios and different habitats with a minimum average projected range loss of 14 % (±18 % ; species typical to urban habitats under moderate climate change assumptions, average temperature increase +2.2 °C) to a maximum average projected range loss of 56 % (±29 % ; species assemblages from mountain communities below the alpine zone at +3.8 °C). A separate analysis of species composition in habitat-specific species pools revealed a significant interaction between the scenario and the major habitat classes. We found a higher risk for habitat types with high conservation value characterised by a significant association between number of nationally endangered species and projected range loss in major habitats. Thus, habitat-specific management and application of measures favouring dispersal are required for mitigation of climate change impacts.