Carbon risk and optimal retrofitting in cement plants: An application of stochastic modelling, MonteCarlo simulation and Real Options Analysis

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• 作者：Luis M. Abadie^a ; ^{lm.abadie@bc3research.org} ; Nestor Goicoechea^b ; ^{nestor.goikoetxea@ehu.eus} ; Ibon Galarraga^a ; ^{ibon.galarraga@bc3research.org}
• 关键词：Cement plants ; Uncertainty ; MonteCarlo simulation ; Carbon emissions ; Real options ; Expected shortfall
• 刊名：Journal of Cleaner Production
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：20 January 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：142
• 期：part_P4
• 页码：3117-3130
• 全文大小：1745 K
• 卷排序：142

文摘

We develop a stochastic model of cement plant emissions for wet and dry technologies. Our model has input flexibility and includes the possibility of using both alternative and biomass fuels. We obtain the expected value of energy and carbon costs and analyse the carbon risks for both technologies. MonteCarlo simulation and Real Option Analysis are used. Changes in climate policy and conditions for retrofitting a plant are analysed.