Methods for building Conditional Probability Tables of Bayesian Belief Networks from limited judgment: An evaluation for Human Reliability Application
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- 作者：L. Mkrtchyan ; L. Podofillini ; luca.podofillini@psi.ch" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; V.N. Dang
- 关键词：Bayesian Belief Networks ; Human Reliability Analysis ; Expert judgment ; Conditional Probability Tables
- 刊名：Reliability Engineering & System Safety
- 出版年：2016
- 出版时间：July 2016
- 年：2016
- 卷：151
- 期：Complete
- 页码：93-112
- 全文大小：6685 K
文摘
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Methods to build Conditional Probability Tables from limited expert judgment are evaluated.
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The focus is on Human Reliability Analysis but the conclusions can be generalized.
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Evaluation criteria: factor influences and interactions, uncertainty and scalability.
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Modelling limitations: multi-factor relationships and uncertainty modeling.