An interactive land use transition agent-based model (ILUTABM): Endogenizing human-environment interactions in the Western Missisquoi Watershed
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- 作者：Yushiou Tsai
- 关键词：Land use simulation ; Agent-based model ; Coupled natural and human system ; Monte Carlo experiment
- 刊名：Land Use Policy
- 出版年：2015
- 出版时间：December 2015
- 年：2015
- 卷：49
- 期：Complete
- 页码：161-176
- 全文大小：3527 K
文摘
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- <p id="par0005">We develop a simplistic but empirically data driven land use transition agent-based modeling platform, interactive land use transition agent-based model (ILUTABM).p>
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- <p id="par0010">The ILUTABM endogenously links the Forest Transition to parcel-level heuristic-based land use decisions and ecosystem service (ES).p>
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- <p id="par0015">The ILUTABM advances the Forest Transition Theory (FTT) framework with a generalizable model that can be calibrated with empirical data.p>
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- <p id="par0020">We hypothesize that farmers’ land use decisions are made primarily based on their aggregated expected utilities.p>
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- <p id="par0025">We examine the sensitivities of the ILUTABM under different socio-economic conditions and ES valuation schemes.p>
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- <p id="par0030">Extent of agricultural lands over time depends on farmers’ socio-economic conditions and farmers’ perceived weights of food provisioning ES versus other ES.p>
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- <p id="par0035">The ILUTABM is able to reproduce 62% of the observed land use transitions.p>
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- <p id="par0040">When farmers value food provision ES more than other ES, deforestation is observed.p>
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- <p id="par0045">When farmers value less food provisioning than other ES (e.g., non-food provisioning, water and soil regulating), reforestation as suggested by forest transition theory (FTT) is observed.p>