Waste management project¡¯s alternatives: A risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach

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• 作者：Athanasios C.  ; Karmperis  ; ;   ; ^{athkarmp@mail.ntua.gr} ;   ; ^{athkarmp@central.ntua.gr} ; Anastasios  ; Sotirchos ;   ; ^{anasot@mail.ntua.gr} ; Konstantinos  ; Aravossis ;   ; ^{arvis@mail.ntua.gr} ; Ilias P.  ; Tatsiopoulos ;   ; ^{itat@central.ntua.gr}
• 关键词：Benefit-cost ; Monte Carlo simulation ; Multi-criteria assessment ; Project&rsquo ; s alternatives ; Risk preference ; Waste management projects
• 刊名：Waste Management
• 出版年：2012
• 出版时间：January 2012
• 年：2012
• 卷：32
• 期：1
• 页码：194-212
• 全文大小：1340 K

文摘

This paper examines the evaluation of a waste management project¡¯s alternatives through a quantitative risk analysis. Cost benefit analysis is a widely used method, in which the investments are mainly assessed through the calculation of their evaluation indicators, namely benefit/cost (B/C) ratios, as well as the quantification of their financial, technical, environmental and social risks. Herein, a novel approach in the form of risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) is introduced, which can be used by decision makers, in order to select the optimum alternative of a waste management project. Specifically, decision makers use multiple criteria, which are based on the cumulative probability distribution functions of the alternatives?B/C ratios. The RBMCA system is used for the evaluation of a waste incineration project¡¯s alternatives, where the correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers?risk preferences is analyzed and useful conclusions are discussed.