Bulawayo water supplies: Sustainable alternatives for the next decade

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• 作者：Noel Mkandla ; Pieter Van der Zaag and Peter Sibanda
• 刊名：Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C
• 出版年：2005
• 出版时间：2005
• 年：2005
• 卷：30
• 期：11-16
• 页码：935-942
• 全文大小：165 K

文摘

Bulawayo is the second largest city in Zimbabwe with a population of nearly one million people. It is located on the watershed of Umzingwane and Gwayi catchments. The former is part of the Limpopo basin, while the latter drains into the Zambezi basin. Bulawayo has a good potential of economic development but has been stymied by lack of sufficient water. The city currently relies on five surface sources in the Umzingwane catchment where it has to compete with evaporation. The well field from the Nyamandlovu aquifer in the Gwayi catchment, which was constructed as an emergency measure during the 1992 drought, is currently not operational. Alternative water supply sources are far and expensive.

A multilinear regression model was developed to analyse and quantify the factors affecting water consumption. It was found that per capita water consumption is very low, indicating suppressed demand. Water rationing, tariffs, rainfall, population growth and gross domestic product are the main factors influencing water consumption in Bulawayo. Assuming that these factors will continue to be influential, future water consumption was projected for intensive, regular and slack water demand management. Future water consumption was then compared with the current water supply capacity in order to determine the date by which the next water supply source is required. With slack demand management, the Nyamandlovu well field should have been operational by 2003, while by the year 2007 an additional source of water is required. With intensive demand management and assuming low population growth, current capacities may suffice to satisfy the suppressed demand until the year 2015, by which time Nyamandlovu wells should be operational again.

The additional water supply sources that are currently being considered for Bulawayo (namely the Zambezi water pipeline; Gwayi Shangani dam; Mtshabezi dam; Lower Tuli dam; and Glass block dam) were then compared with an alternative water source not yet contemplated, namely drawing groundwater from Umguza, part of the Nyamandlovu aquifer. The paper then provides details of the Umguza alternative, which was designed at pre-feasibility level by Mkandla [Mkandla, N., 2003. Bulawayo water supplies: Umguza well field as a sustainable alternative for the next decade. Unpublished M.Sc. WREM dissertation. University of Zimbabwe, Harare].

All alternative additional water supply sources were compared in terms of their Net Present Values. It was found that Umguza well field is the least-cost alternative to meet additional water demand. The Umguza alternative will be able to satisfy water demand for a period of six to ten years. Thereafter, the second least-cost alternative, namely Gwayi Shangani dam, must be on stream.