An empirically-simulated investigation of the impact of demand forecasting on the bullwhip effect: Evidence from U.S. auto industry

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• 作者：Chung-Yean Chiang^a ; ^{cchiang@georgiasouthern.edu" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Winston T. Lin^b ; ^{mgtfewtl@buffalo.edu" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Nallan C. Suresh^b ; ^{ncsuresh@buffalo.edu" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author}
• 关键词：Empirical research ; Bullwhip effect ; Demand forecasting ; Supply chain
• 刊名：International Journal of Production Economics
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：July 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：177
• 期：Complete
• 页码：53-65
• 全文大小：725 K

文摘

This study empirically examines the impacts of three major aspects of demand forecasting on the magnitude of the bullwhip effect. Three research questions are addressed to investigate the association between (1) forecast accuracy, (2) aggregate forecasting, and (3) responsive forecasting and the bullwhip effect. Using forecasted demand generated from popular time-series forecasting models and real-life demand data, the study investigates the relationship between the forecasted results and the consequential bullwhip effect. The findings show that the forecasting methods used lead to the variation of the bullwhip effect. Moreover, the lead time reduction and the stable demand forecast are beneficial to reduce the bullwhip effect. However, our empirical results differ from previous findings in two ways: (i) improving forecast accuracy does not necessarily reduce the bullwhip effect and (ii) aggregate forecasting does not always reduce the bullwhip effect.