Why did the historical energy forecasting succeed or fail? A case study on IEA's projection
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- 作者：Hua LiaoAuthor Vitae ; Jia-Wei CaiAuthor Vitae ; Dong-Wei YangAuthor Vitae ; Yi-Ming Wei ; wei@bit.edu.cn" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; ymwei@deas.harvard.edu" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Author Vitae
- 关键词：Energy demand ; Medium-to-long term prediction ; Forecast error ; Social development
- 刊名：Technological Forecasting & Social Change
- 出版年：2016
- 出版时间：June 2016
- 年：2016
- 卷：107
- 期：Complete
- 页码：90-96
- 全文大小：493 K
文摘
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GDP is the leading source of IEA's historic energy demand forecast errors.
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Gas appears to be the most severely biased among all fuel types.
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China remains to be more severely underestimated than any other country groups.
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Underestimation of GDP leads to aggravated errors in demand forecasts.