Uncertainty in crop model predictions: What is the role of users?
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- 作者：Roberto Confalonieria ; roberto.confalonieri@unimi.it" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Francesca Orlandob ; Livia Palearib ; Tommaso Stellab ; Carlo Gilardellib ; Ermes Movedib ; Valentina Paganib ; Giovanni Cappellib ; Andrea Vertemarac ; Luigi Albertic ; Paolo Albertic ; Samuel Atanassiuc ; Matteo Bonaitic ; Giovanni Cappellettic ; Matteo Cerutic ; Andrea Confalonieric ; Gabriele Corgatellic ; Paolo Cortic ; Michele Dell'Oroc ; Alessandro Ghidonic ; Angelo Lamartac ; Alberto Maghinic ; Martino Mambrettic ; Agnese Manchiac ; Gianluca Massonic ; Pierangelo Muttic ; Stefano Parianic ; Davide Pasinic ; Andrea Pesentic ; Giovanni Pizzamiglioc ; Adriano Ravasioc ; Alessandro Reac ; David Santorsolac ; Giulia Serafinic ; Marco Slavazzac ; Marco Acutisb
- 关键词：Calibration ; Maize ; Model ensemble ; Parameter uncertainty ; Rapeseed ; Uncertainty in predictions
- 刊名：Environmental Modelling & Software
- 出版年：2016
- 出版时间：July 2016
- 年：2016
- 卷：81
- 期：Complete
- 页码：165-173
- 全文大小：1248 K
文摘
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Five crop models and 20 users were arranged in four randomized blocks.
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The significance of model factor for maize and rapeseed was evaluated.
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All models achieved good performance for maize and poor for rapeseed.
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Differences between models were significant only in 30% of the cases for maize.
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Parameterization uncertainty should be explicitly managed also in model ensembles.