Does the conservation of land reduce development? An econometric-based landscape simulation with land market feedbacks

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：Katherine Y. Zipp^a ; ^kyz1@psu.edu ; David J. Lewis^b ; ^{lewisda@oregonstate.edu} ; Bill Provencher^c ; ^{rwproven@wisc.edu}
• 关键词：Land use ; Open-space conservation ; Wildlife habitat ; Micro-econometrics ; Spatial simulation
• 刊名：Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：January 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：81
• 期：Complete
• 页码：19-37
• 全文大小：582 K
• 卷排序：81

文摘

We use an econometrically-based landscape simulation to investigate the effect of conservation on the net change in local development – the amount of land directly protected from development minus the amount of development that may occur on neighboring unprotected private land in response to conservation. First, we use spatial-panel data from Wisconsin to estimate parcel-level subdivision probabilities and density expectations, controlling for the endogenous location of open space. Second, we use these subdivision probabilities and density expectations in a landscape simulation model. Our simulation results indicate that 57% of conserved open space created between 1978 and 2009 generated close to zero net change in local development. This suggests that conserved open space mostly reallocated development in a small neighborhood (in a half-mile radius) rather than altering the total amount of development. We explore the landscape conditions that may lead to conservation having either a positive or negative effect on local development.