How should economists model climate? Tipping points and nonlinear dynamics of carbon dioxide concentrations
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- 作者：Jean-Paul Chavas ; Corbett Grainger ; corbett.grainger@wisc.edu ; Nicholas Hudson
- 关键词：Tipping points ; Threshold quantile autoregression ; Nonlinear dynamics ; Climate change
- 刊名：Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
- 出版年：2016
- 出版时间：December 2016
- 年：2016
- 卷：132
- 期：part_PB
- 页码：56-65
- 全文大小：929 K
- 卷排序：132
文摘
Economists modeling climate policy face an array of choices when modeling climate change, including the role of uncertainty/ambiguity, irreversibility, and tipping points. After filtering out estimated cycles due to orbital climate forcing, we use a threshold quantile autoregressive model to characterize anomalies in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We then test for local instability and tipping points, and we characterize the stationary distribution of anomalies. We find evidence of nonlinear dynamics, tipping points and a non-normal stationary distribution.