An interactive land use transition agent-based model (ILUTABM): Endogenizing human-environment interactions in the Western Missisquoi Watershed
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文摘
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We develop a simplistic but empirically data driven land use transition agent-based modeling platform, interactive land use transition agent-based model (ILUTABM).

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The ILUTABM endogenously links the Forest Transition to parcel-level heuristic-based land use decisions and ecosystem service (ES).

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The ILUTABM advances the Forest Transition Theory (FTT) framework with a generalizable model that can be calibrated with empirical data.

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We hypothesize that farmers’ land use decisions are made primarily based on their aggregated expected utilities.

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We examine the sensitivities of the ILUTABM under different socio-economic conditions and ES valuation schemes.

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Extent of agricultural lands over time depends on farmers’ socio-economic conditions and farmers’ perceived weights of food provisioning ES versus other ES.

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The ILUTABM is able to reproduce 62% of the observed land use transitions.

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When farmers value food provision ES more than other ES, deforestation is observed.

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When farmers value less food provisioning than other ES (e.g., non-food provisioning, water and soil regulating), reforestation as suggested by forest transition theory (FTT) is observed.

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