We develop a simplistic but empirically data driven land use transition agent-based modeling platform, interactive land use transition agent-based model (ILUTABM).
The ILUTABM endogenously links the Forest Transition to parcel-level heuristic-based land use decisions and ecosystem service (ES).
The ILUTABM advances the Forest Transition Theory (FTT) framework with a generalizable model that can be calibrated with empirical data.
We hypothesize that farmers’ land use decisions are made primarily based on their aggregated expected utilities.
We examine the sensitivities of the ILUTABM under different socio-economic conditions and ES valuation schemes.
Extent of agricultural lands over time depends on farmers’ socio-economic conditions and farmers’ perceived weights of food provisioning ES versus other ES.
The ILUTABM is able to reproduce 62% of the observed land use transitions.
When farmers value food provision ES more than other ES, deforestation is observed.
When farmers value less food provisioning than other ES (e.g., non-food provisioning, water and soil regulating), reforestation as suggested by forest transition theory (FTT) is observed.