Outranking under uncertainty using scenarios

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：Ian N. Durbach
• 关键词：Decision analysis ; Multi-criteria ; Outranking ; Uncertainty ; Scenarios
• 刊名：European Journal of Operational Research
• 出版年：2014
• 出版时间：1 January, 2014
• 年：2014
• 卷：232
• 期：1
• 页码：98-108
• 全文大小：1202 K

文摘

This paper considers the use of scenarios to treat uncertain attribute evaluations in the outranking methods. The scenario-based approach allows the decision maker to think deterministically about the problem by attaching causal links to a small number of potential outcomes, instead of using probability distributions. The scenario approach can be expressed as a simplified version of the comprehensive but practically complex ¡°distributive¡± outranking method of d¡¯Avignon and Vincke. Using a scenario approach has distinct practical advantages, but also presents the inherent danger that meaningful information is ignored. The extent of this danger is assessed using a simulation experiment, where it is found to be of a magnitude that is non-trivial but still potentially acceptable for certain decision contexts.