Intensive wood-cutting and grazing prevented saguaro establishment in the early 1900s. Saguaro establishment surged from 1960-1990 due to recovery of nurse plants and favorable climate. Establishment since the mid-1990s has been low. The population was dominated by mature adult saguaros in 1941 and by juveniles in 2012. We observed a 31.4% decrease in the number of saguaros from 1941 to 2012.