Forecasting new product diffusion with agent-based models
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- 作者：Yu Xiaoa ; jxndtbxiaoyu@163.com" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding authorAuthor Vitae ; Jingti Hanb ; cAuthor Vitae
- 关键词：Agent-based model ; Bass model ; Social network ; Combined prediction ; Forecasting model
- 刊名：Technological Forecasting & Social Change
- 出版年：2016
- 出版时间：April 2016
- 年：2016
- 卷：105
- 期：Complete
- 页码：167-178
- 全文大小：879 K
文摘
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We construct an asynchronous ABM to forecast the most common penetration patterns.
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A fast estimation method for non-structural parameters of the ABM is proposed.
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A discriminative model is constructed to identify the HIN of an ABM.
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Most HINs have a moderate topology.
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Our methods outperform 4 traditional diffusion forecasting models in predictive performance.