Modelling HGV freight transport energy demand in Ireland and the impacts of the property construction bubble

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• 作者：Kieran Whyte^a ; ^b ; Hannah E. Daly^a ; ^b ; ^{h.e.daly@umail.ucc.ie} ; ^{hannah.daly@ucl.ac.uk} ; Brian P. Ó ; Gallachó ; ir^a ; ^b
• 关键词：Freight transport ; Energy modelling ; HGV
• 刊名：Energy
• 出版年：2013
• 出版时间：1 February, 2013
• 年：2013
• 卷：50
• 期：Complete
• 页码：245-251
• 全文大小：1057 K

文摘

Freight transport is both significant and fast growing in terms of energy use but there are few papers that focus on modelling future freight transport energy use. This paper addresses this knowledge gap, focussing on Ireland, which is an interesting case study because it has witnessed a significant increase in energy use for freight from 1990 to 2007 followed by a dramatic drop in the following two years due to the property construction bubble bursting and economic recession. The paper focuses on HGV freight only due to gaps in LGV data and the focus on construction activity. We disaggregate freight activity (tkm) in terms of three commodity groupings (reflecting sectoral activity) and weight class, and estimate historical HGV energy demand by commodity group using specific energy consumption (MJ/tkm) by weight class. We then determine the most significant economic driver behind the activity trends for each commodity grouping and the associated elasticity of demand. Finally we use these elasticities along with national economic forecasts to project future HGV activity and energy for each commodity grouping. Comparing the approach presented with an aggregated GDP-tkm-MJ approach, it is clear from the results that the disaggregated approach captures better the trend in the period 2008-2010.