Expert elicitation of autocorrelated time series with application to e3 (energy-environment-economic) forecasting models

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• 作者：Ian Durbach^a ; ^b ; ^{ian.durbach@uct.ac.za} ; Bruno Merven^c ; Bryce McCall^c
• 关键词：Forecasting ; Expert elicitation ; Greenhouse gas emissions ; e3 modelling ; Uncertainty
• 刊名：Environmental Modelling & Software
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：February 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：88
• 期：Complete
• 页码：93-105
• 全文大小：1219 K
• 卷排序：88

文摘

Projections are time series that describe how a variable might evolve over time. We describe an expert elicitation protocol for assessing uncertainty around projections. The resulting probabilistic projections can be passed to e3 models to produce probabilistic projections of model outputs. The protocol is illustrated with two real-world case studies. An R package projections for assisting with the elicitation protocol is provided.