On the long-term seismic hazard analysis in the Zhangjiakou–Penglai seismotectonic zone, China

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• 作者：Zhengxiang Fu ; Jie Liu ; Guiping Liu
• 关键词：Zhangjiakou– ; Penglai seismotectonic zone (ZPSZ) ; Long-term seismic hazard analysis ; Poisson probability of earthquake occurrence
• 刊名：Tectonophysics
• 出版年：2004
• 出版时间：18 October 2004
• 年：2004
• 卷：390
• 期：1-4
• 页码：75-83
• 全文大小：367 K

文摘

The Zhangjiakou–Penglai seismotectonic zone (ZPSZ) lies in the northern part of North China and extends along the Zhangjiakou–Beijing–Tianjin–Bohai Bay–Penglai–Yellow Sea. It is about 900 km long and some 250 km wide in a northwest direction. The great Sanhe-Pinggu (M_S=8.0) earthquake occurred on September 1679 and the Tangshan (M_S=7.8) earthquake on July 1976 caused serious economic and life losses. According to some differences in crust structure and regional tectonic stress field, the ZPSZ is divided into western and eastern segment by the 117°E line for study on long-term seismic hazard analysis. An analysis of Gutenberg–Richter's empirical relation of earthquake-frequency and time process of historic and recent earthquakes along the eastern and western segments shows that the earthquake activity obeys a Poisson process, and these calculations indicate that the earthquake occurrence probability of M_S=6.0–6.9 is 0.77–0.83 in the eastern segment and the earthquake occurrence probability of M_S=7.0–7.9 is 0.78–0.80 in the western segment of the ZPSZ during a period from 2005 to 2015.