Economic performance and incumbents' support in Latin America

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• 作者：M. Victoria Murillo ; ^{mm2140@columbia.edu} ; Giancarlo Visconti
• 关键词：Incumbents ; Electoral support ; Economic conditions ; Accountability ; Latin America
• 刊名：Electoral Studies
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：February 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：45
• 期：Complete
• 页码：180-190
• 全文大小：467 K
• 卷排序：45

文摘

Economic conditions and, especially negative income shocks affect the stability of incumbents’ support in Latin America. At the aggregate level, a negative shock, involving inflation or growth, decreases the incumbent vote share in the next election by 7 or 6 percent respectively. A negative income shock (at the individual level) increases voters' chances of defecting from the incumbent candidate (conditional on having voted for the incumbent in the previous elections) by almost 6 percent.