Industrial disasters: Extreme events, extremely rare. Some reflections on the treatment of uncertainties in the assessment of the associated risks

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：Enrico Zio^a ; ^b ; ^{enrico.zio@ecp.fr} ; ^{enrico.zio@supelec.fr} ; ^{enrico.zio@polimi.it} ; Terje Aven^c ; ^{terje.aven@uis.no}
• 关键词：Industrial disasters ; Rare events ; Uncertainty ; Risk ; Probability ; Interval probabilities ; Dempster-Shafer theory ; Possibility
• 刊名：Process Safety and Environmental Protection
• 出版年：2013
• 出版时间：January-March, 2013
• 年：2013
• 卷：91
• 期：1-2
• 页码：31-45
• 全文大小：564 K

文摘

This paper addresses the issue of risk from disasters occurring due to accidents in high-consequence technologies, e.g., nuclear and oil and gas. The focus is on the challenges posed to the representation and treatment of uncertainties in the assessment of such risk, given that the occurrence of such extreme disasters is extremely unlikely, and yet they occur. A general framework of analysis is proposed.