Estimating the frequency of volcanic ash clouds over northern Europe

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• 作者：E.J. Watson^a ; ^{gy08ejw@leeds.ac.uk} ; G.T. Swindles^a ; I.P. Savov^b ; I.T. Lawson^c ; C.B. Connor^d ; J.A. Wilson^d
• 关键词：cryptotephra ; reoccurrence ; survival analysis ; hazards ; eruptions ; Iceland
• 刊名：Earth and Planetary Science Letters
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：15 February 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：460
• 期：Complete
• 页码：41-49
• 全文大小：2393 K
• 卷排序：460

文摘

We compare Icelandic and European records of volcanic ash fallout over last 1000 years. We estimate the average return interval for ash fallout over northern Europe to be 44±7 years44±7 years. Ash fallout over Europe is more common than previously proposed (average of 56±9 years56±9 years). We estimate a 20% chance of an ash cloud over northern Europe in any 10 year period. Icelandic eruptions with a VEI ≥ 4 pose the greatest threat of ash fallout over northern Europe.