Hurricane loss estimation in wood-frame buildings using Bayesian model updating: Assessing uncertainty in fragility and reliability analyses

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• 作者：Spandan Mishra^a ; O. Arda Vanli^a ; ^{oavanli@fsu.eng.edu} ; Bejoy P. Alduse^b ; Sungmoon Jung^b
• 关键词：Bayesian model updating ; Hurricane loss ; Fragility ; Monte Carlo simulation
• 刊名：Engineering Structures
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：15 March 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：135
• 期：Complete
• 页码：81-94
• 全文大小：1382 K
• 卷排序：135

文摘

Bayesian model updating method is proposed to quantify uncertainty in fragility of wooden structures. Bayesian regression model with conjugate priors is employed to find the posterior capacity. Importance sampling is used for efficient computation of failure probability through domain of wind speed. Total expected loss is calculated using fragility functions while considering model uncertainty.