Exponential-growth bias and overconfidence

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• 作者：Matthew R. Levy^a ; ^{m.r.levy@lse.ac.uk} ; Joshua Tasoff^b ; ^{joshua.tasoff@cgu.edu}
• 关键词：Exponential-growth bias ; Overconfidence ; Financial literacy ; Overestimation ; Overprecision
• 刊名：Journal of Economic Psychology
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：February 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：58
• 期：Complete
• 页码：1-14
• 全文大小：678 K
• 卷排序：58

文摘

We measure exponential-growth bias and overconfidence in a laboratory experiment. People exhibit exponential-growth bias. People exhibit overconfidence in their ability to calculate exponential growth. People exhibit overconfidence in their ability to use a spreadsheet. The results suggest insufficient demand for help and tools.