Forecasting the South African inflation rate: On asymmetric loss and forecast rationality
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- 作者：Christian Pierdziocha ; c.pierdzioch@hsu-hh.de" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Monique B. Reidb ; mreid@sun.ac.za" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Rangan Guptac ; rangan.gupta@up.ac.za" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author
- 关键词：C53 ; D82 ; E37
- 刊名：Economic Systems
- 出版年：2016
- 出版时间：March 2016
- 年：2016
- 卷：40
- 期：1
- 页码：82-92
- 全文大小：1149 K
文摘
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We study the formation of inflation expectations in South Africa.
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Using micro-level data, we find mixed evidence of an asymmetric loss function.
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Inflation forecasts are often in line with forecast rationality.
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Evidence of an asymmetric loss function is stronger when we study pooled and sectoral data.
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We find strong evidence against forecast rationality when we study pooled and sectoral data.