Evaluating expert advice in forecasting: Users’ reactions to presumed vs. experienced credibility

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• 作者：Dilek Ö ; nkal^a ; ^{onkal@bilkent.edu.tr}Author Vitae ; M. Sinan Gö ; nü ; l^bAuthor Vitae ; Paul Goodwin^cAuthor Vitae ; Mary Thomson^dAuthor Vitae ; Esra Ö ; z^aAuthor Vitae
• 关键词：Source credibility ; Presumed credibility ; Experienced credibility ; Advice ; Forecasting ; Information use
• 刊名：International Journal of Forecasting
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：January-March 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：33
• 期：1
• 页码：280-297
• 全文大小：1206 K
• 卷排序：33

文摘

In expert knowledge elicitation (EKE) for forecasting, the perceived credibility of an expert is likely to affect the weighting attached to their advice. Four experiments have investigated the extent to which the implicit weighting depends on the advisor’s experienced (reflecting the accuracy of their past forecasts), or presumed (based on their status) credibility. Compared to a control group, advice from a source with a high experienced credibility received a greater weighting, but having a low level of experienced credibility did not reduce the weighting. In contrast, a high presumed credibility did not increase the weighting relative to a control group, while a low presumed credibility decreased it. When there were opportunities for the two types of credibility to interact, a high experienced credibility tended to eclipse the presumed credibility if the advisees were non-experts. However, when the advisees were professionals, both the presumed and experienced credibility of the advisor were influential in determining the weight attached to the advice.