Instability and refinement of models in long term planning of large scale projects

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：I. Galperin ; E.A. Galperin
• 关键词：Long term models ; Instability ; Sensitivity ; Multi-model systems
• 刊名：Mathematical and Computer Modelling
• 出版年：2007
• 出版时间：June 2007
• 年：2007
• 卷：45
• 期：11-12
• 页码：1342-1349
• 全文大小：229 K

文摘

Instability of models used in long term planning of large scale industrial projects is demonstrated. The uncertainty band around the balance set is introduced to account for unpredictable variations of important parameters or utilities created by instability in multi-objective optimization of large scale projects. Then, instability of dynamic models of growth is considered including population dynamics with saturation and long term optimal planning in social and economic spheres. A method of successive refinement in a synthetic multi-model system is proposed, and application of the sequence of refined models is illustrated on a real-life example of construction of a dam with yearly refinements of the initial model, based on past history of project realization.